Coffee market analysis on 02/11/2026: International market recovers, domestic prices still under pressure from the new crop

The latest trading session of the international coffee market recorded both Robusta London and Arabica New York increasing in price. However, the purchase price in the Central Highlands decreased slightly on 01/11. This mismatch reflects an important reality: futures prices can recover before the domestic market absorbs the pressure of new supply from the new harvest.

International prices have recovered but not yet confirmed an upward trend

According to data closing on 31/10, the November 2026 Robusta contract on ICE Futures Europe reached $3,219 per ton, up $42 per ton, equivalent to 1.32%. The January 2027 contract reached $3,204 per ton, up $28 per ton, equivalent to 0.88%.

The Arabica New York futures contract for December 2026 also increased by 1.75 cents per pound, to 287.20 US cents per pound, equivalent to 0.61%.

The contracts in the table belong to different markets and specifications. The B3 Brazil price is listed in USD per 60 kg bag, while Arabica New York is in cents per pound and Robusta London is in USD per ton. Do not plot them on the same price axis or take the arithmetic difference directly to infer the expensive and cheap.

Specifically, for Robusta, note the difference in liquidity between the two nearby contracts. According to the data table on 31/10 of Giacaphe.com, the January 2027 contract had 61,990 open contracts, while the November 2026 contract had only 1,903. Therefore, when reading trading trends, the January 2027 contract has a better reference value than just looking at the November contract approaching the delivery date.

The contract expiry information from ICE Futures Europe indicates that the first delivery date for the November 2026 Robusta contract is 02/11/2026. This highlights the need for caution when using near-term contracts as the sole representative of the entire market.

Domestic prices have not moved in tandem with the exchange.

While international futures prices rose in the final session of the week, green coffee bean prices in the Central Highlands on 01/11 still fell by approximately 400–500 VND/kg compared to the previous session, according to data cited by VOV from Giacaphe.com.

The average price recorded by Giacaphe.com stood at 86,900 VND/kg, a decrease of 500 VND/kg. In its morning bulletin on 02/11, VOV also reported a general purchase price of around 87,000 VND/kg. These are reference levels; actual transaction prices at individual dealers may vary based on quality, moisture content, impurities, and delivery terms.

The divergence between futures prices and physical prices can be explained by three factors.

First, exchange prices reflect expectations for future delivery, whereas domestic purchase prices are directly influenced by the immediate availability of supply in growing regions.

Second, as the harvest begins, some farmers and traders need to sell to recover capital, cover production costs, or clear warehouse space. Selling pressure in the physical market may cause domestic prices to lag behind upward movements in the futures market.

Third, domestic prices depend not only on London Robusta. Trade differentials, exchange rates, transportation costs, and purchasing demand from exporting enterprises all influence final prices in each locality.

Brazilian supply: Record figures create pressure but do not imply immediate surplus

According to the third report from Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab), published on 24/09 and updated on 28/10/2026, Brazil's 2026 coffee production is estimated at 67.6 million 60-kg bags, a 19.6% increase from 2025. At the time of the report, approximately 99% of the area had been harvested.

Notably, the production structure between the two coffee lines is different:

• Arabica: 48.2 million bags, up 34.8% from 2025.
• Robusta: 19.4 million bags, down 6.6% from 2025.

Thus, Brazil's production growth is mainly driven by Arabica, while Conilon still faces a decline. This is a point to note when evaluating the impact on each futures market, rather than viewing Brazil's total production as a single variable.

Regarding exports, Brazil shipped 3.8 million bags in August 2026, up 43.2% from the same period last year. However, the total export volume from January to August was still 6.6% lower than the same period in 2025. This indicates that the export line may increase sharply in a month but does not necessarily mean that the accumulated volume for the year has increased correspondingly.

Source: Conab's 2026 Coffee Production Report.

Vietnam enters the harvest season: Short-term pressure and risks for the next crop

The end of October and early November is the period when the market begins to focus strongly on new Robusta supplies in the Central Highlands. When coffee is harvested and put into circulation, the increase in the volume of goods offered for sale can put pressure on spot prices, especially when buyers have not yet accelerated their purchases.

However, the outlook for Vietnam's 2026/27 production is not entirely consistent between forecast sources. According to a Reuters article on The Straits Times on October 19, 2026, a representative of the Vietnamese coffee industry estimated that the current crop may be almost flat. Replanted trees entering the stable yield phase are compensating for part of the damage caused by weather and pests in some areas.

In contrast, the USDA's May 2026 forecast, as cited by Reuters, estimates Vietnam's 2026/27 coffee production to increase by 2.5%, reaching 32.5 million 60-kg bags, with Robusta at 31.4 million bags.

The difference between the two views should not be seen as meaningless error. It reflects the difference between production model-based forecasts and the real-world assessments of market participants in the growing regions.

The risk of El Niño weather for the 2027/28 crop is also being monitored. However, at this time, there is not enough basis to accurately quantify the production decline due to El Niño. This is a medium-term risk factor that should not be used as conclusive evidence for a price increase in November.

Global market: Production is increasing faster than consumption, but inventory remains a variable

In Conab's report, the USDA's forecast for the 2026/27 crop puts global coffee production at around 189.7 million 60-kg bags, up 6.1%; global consumption is expected to reach 179.7 million bags, up 3.6%.

The consumption drive is still being recorded in traditional markets such as Europe, the United States, and Brazil, while expanding in some emerging markets such as China.

The notable point is that the forecast production growth rate is higher than the consumption growth rate. This may reduce the level of tension in the supply-demand balance compared to previous periods of shortage. However, it is not possible to simply subtract the forecast production and consumption to conclude the actual surplus, as there are also initial inventory, final inventory, import and export flows, and statistical adjustments to consider.

Conab also notes that inventory at low levels is still a factor that helps limit the risk of a deep price drop. This creates a tug-of-war: seasonal supply is improving, but the inventory buffer is not yet large enough to completely eliminate the risk premium.

SAVINA's assessment: The recovery trend needs to be verified by actual shipments

In the short term, SAVINA leans towards a scenario of two-way market volatility. Futures prices may continue to be supported by inventory levels, demand for goods, and uncertainties about the weather. On the other hand, new Robusta supplies from Vietnam and the production outlook for Brazil will create pressure as the goods enter circulation.

For Robusta, it is recommended to prioritize monitoring the January 2027 contract rather than just looking at the November 2026 contract, which is approaching delivery time. The volume of open contracts and fluctuations between contract terms will help identify whether funds are actually returning or not.

For the domestic market, it is necessary to monitor the speed of goods entering the market, prices at wholesalers, coffee quality at the beginning of the crop, and price differentials between regions. If international prices continue to rise but domestic prices remain weak, this may indicate that material supply pressure is still dominating.

For growers and businesses, what is important is not just predicting whether prices will rise or fall, but also managing cash flow, inventory costs, product quality, and delivery progress. A rally on the exchange does not automatically guarantee that prices at the farm will increase correspondingly.

The coffee market is entering a sensitive phase of the crop season. Prices will need additional trading sessions and actual purchase data to confirm whether the new demand is strong enough to absorb the forming supply pressure or not.

Source: SAVINA's analysis is based on publicly available data at the time of article closure; prices may change when the next trading session opens. This content serves as market reference, not a futures contract purchase recommendation.