Market Analysis: November 5, 2026 - Export volume increases by 18.8%, but revenue decreases

The Vietnamese coffee market enters November with a notable paradox: export volume increases rapidly, but revenue decreases. Meanwhile, green coffee prices in the Central Highlands continue to adjust downward to the range of 83,300-84,000 VND/kg.

According to data from Vietnam's statistics agency, released by Reuters on November 3, Vietnam exported 1.569 million tons of coffee in the first ten months of 2026, a 18.8% increase from the same period last year. However, export revenue only reached $7.08 billion, down 5.2%.

This is not just a story about declining coffee prices. It reflects a more significant issue for businesses: sales volume is increasing, but revenue per ton is weakening.

Analysis time: 07:03, November 5, 2026, Vietnam time. Domestic prices use the latest update at 23:37, November 4. ICE prices use the latest available data, not necessarily the settlement price.

1. International coffee prices: Robusta rebounds slightly, Arabica continues to face pressure

Direct data from ICE shows that the two main coffee lines continue to diverge in the trading records of November 4.

2. Robusta London

The January 2027 Robusta futures contract recorded a price of $3,219 per ton, up 0.28% from the previous reference price.

The data was recorded at 14:06 GMT on November 4, 2026, equivalent to 21:06 Vietnam time.

Compared to the previous reference price of $3,210 per ton, the price increased by $9 per ton. However, this increase only represents a slight recovery, not enough to confirm a new upward trend.

3. Arabica New York

The December 2026 Coffee C futures contract recorded a price of 280.85 cents per pound, down 1.092%.

The data was updated at 18:15 GMT on November 4, equivalent to 01:15 on November 5, Vietnam time.

The decrease in Arabica prices indicates that the market remains cautious about supply prospects and futures trading activity.

Source: ICE Futures Europe and ICE Futures U.S. Data has a minimum delay of 15 minutes. The two contracts are recorded at different times, so do not consider them as two closing prices at the same time. ICE Robusta · ICE Coffee C.

2. Domestic coffee prices: Central Highlands continues to decline

According to the updated price table at 23:37 on November 4, 2026, the price of coffee beans at the four main collection areas ranges from 83,300 to 84,000 VND/kg.

The average price is calculated as the arithmetic mean of the four regional prices, not the weighted average based on trading volume.

A notable point is that the London Robusta futures price has a slight recovery, but the domestic collection price is still declining. This difference shows that the physical market is under pressure from local supplies, trading demand, and the progress of introducing new crop coffee to the market.

The floor price does not automatically convert to the collection price at the farm. Businesses must also consider quality, moisture, impurities, delivery location, commercial differences, and payment terms.

In the seven days with data from October 28 to November 4, the average price decreased from 88,950 to 83,825 VND/kg, equivalent to a decrease of 5,125 VND/kg, or approximately 5.76% compared to the initial benchmark.

This is a significant decrease for those holding physical goods, especially as we enter the harvesting season and the working capital needs of farm households and agents begin to increase.

3. Vietnam's Exports: Quantity Up, Revenue Down

This is the most notable data in today's analysis.

According to the statistics of the Vietnam General Statistics Office, as reported by Reuters on November 3, 2026, Vietnam's coffee exports in the first ten months of the year reached 1.569 million tons, up 18.8% from the same period in 2025.

However, the export value only reached $7.08 billion, down 5.2%.

In particular, in October, Vietnam exported approximately 114,000 tons, up 60% from the same period last year.

Source: Reuters – Vietnam coffee exports rise 18.8% in January–October 2026.

The two numbers of increase and decrease appearing in the same report indicate that the value received per unit of goods is decreasing significantly.

Calculate the average export value per ton

To better understand the difference, SAVINA uses the calculation of export value divided by export volume.

We can continue to deduce the average value of the same period last year from the growth rate of volume and revenue reported by Reuters:

This is a financial signal that deserves attention. Vietnam may be shipping more goods, but the value received per ton of export is significantly lower.

4. Increasing volume does not necessarily translate to increasing business efficiency

In agricultural export activities, revenue is not solely dependent on volume. Selling price, product mix, market demand, contract closing time, and exchange rate all impact the final value.

For coffee, the difference between two indicators can create three scenarios:

A business may increase the volume of shipments but reduce the average value per unit

A business may fulfill more contracts but at a lower average selling price. This can lead to slow or even declining revenue despite increased export volume

Gross profit margin may come under pressure

If the selling price drops while the costs of purchasing raw materials, transportation, storage, interest, and insurance do not decrease correspondingly, the gross profit margin will narrow

However, it is not possible to conclude that the business's profit will also decrease by 20.2% based on a 20.2% drop in the average value per unit. To evaluate profit, data on cost of goods sold, costs, and export product mix is required

Working capital requirements may increase

When export volume is high, a business may need to allocate additional funds to purchase, store, process, transport, and maintain delivery contracts

In the context of a lower average selling price, the speed of cash recovery and inventory turnover become crucial factors in maintaining liquidity

5. Why domestic coffee prices continue to fall even as Robusta London recovers slightly?

Looking at the market on 04/11, Robusta London recorded a slight increase while Robusta coffee prices in the Central Highlands continued to fall. This is not an economic paradox

Price futures and physical prices are two markets with different mechanisms for forming prices

Robusta London prices reflect futures contracts traded on the exchange, while Robusta coffee prices in the Central Highlands depend on actual trading conditions in each region

The gap between physical and futures prices is typically analyzed through the basis. The basis is influenced not only by exchange prices but also by

• Coffee quality and packaging
• Moisture content and impurity ratio
• Delivery location and transportation costs
• Ability to supply goods on time
• Actual demand from exporters and roasters
• Exchange rates, interest rates, and inventory financing costs

When entering the harvest season, farmers and traders may put more goods on the market to meet cash needs. If physical demand has not kept pace, the purchase price may continue to weaken even if futures contracts have a recovery

Therefore, do not use a single increase in London to conclude that coffee prices in the Central Highlands have hit a bottom

6. Export product mix and competitive pressure in the final months of the year

The data for October showed a 60% increase in volume compared to the same period last year, indicating a strong increase in export pace. However, it is necessary to distinguish between export goods in October and the amount of freshly harvested coffee put into the market at the same time.

Export goods in October may include inventory from previous months, goods that have been contracted or accumulated sources at the enterprise.

This is why the export increase in October cannot be used as a basis to conclude that all of the new crop coffee has been sold.

In the next phase, we need to observe:

• The actual export volume in November and December.
• The average value per ton of export.
• The difference between the purchase price of raw materials and the export sales price.
• The ability of the enterprise to deliver goods on schedule.
• The fluctuation of the USD/VND exchange rate and the cost of financing goods.

If exports continue to increase in volume but the average value per ton does not recover, the pressure on cash flow and profit margins of a part of the enterprises may be prolonged.

7. Three market scenarios to follow

8. Scenario 1: Domestic prices continue to face pressure from new crop supplies

If the amount of coffee put into the market increases rapidly while the demand for physical goods does not improve correspondingly, the purchase price may continue to weaken. In this case, the recovery of Robusta futures will not be enough to reverse the domestic market.

9. Scenario 2: Exports increase and average value stabilizes

If the demand for delivery improves, the export contract value is raised, and the enterprise's cash flow is improved, the purchasing power of raw materials in the domestic market may increase again.

10. What is important is not just the number of tons exported but also the actual price of new contracts.

11. Scenario 3: The futures market and the physical market continue to diverge

This is a situation that needs to be closely monitored. The futures price may fluctuate according to investment capital flow and global supply and demand expectations, while the physical price in Vietnam reacts faster to the progress of harvesting, demand, and enterprise purchasing power.

12. If the gap between the two markets changes, the basis will also fluctuate. This directly affects how enterprises calculate the purchase price of goods and manage export contract risks.

13. SAVINA's perspective

14. Data for the first ten months of 2026 shows that Vietnam is exporting coffee in significantly larger volumes than the same period last year, but the value received is decreasing. This is a more important signal than a single increase or decrease in futures prices.

15. From a financial perspective, what needs to be concerned is the ability to convert production into revenue and profit. Increased exports do not automatically mean that enterprises are operating more efficiently. When the average value per ton decreases, managing asset value, inventory, accounts payable, and financial costs will determine the ability to maintain profit margins.

16. For the domestic market, the price of 83,300-84,000 VND/kg on November 4 shows that the pressure from the physical market still exists. The small recovery of Robusta London is not enough to confirm a change in trend.

17. SAVINA believes that this period needs to closely monitor three indicators: the actual purchase price at the farm, the average export value, and the enterprise's working capital turnover speed. When all three improve, the market will have a more solid basis to form a sustainable recovery.

18. Producers and distributors need to pay attention to their financial capabilities when storing inventory, while export enterprises need to manage the difference between the purchase price of raw materials and the sales price of contracts tightly. Do not equate a recovery in futures prices with an immediate improvement in cash flow across the entire supply chain.

Read more at Market Analysis of Coffee on 04/11/2026 to track inventory trends and international supply and demand prospects. Other analysis articles are stored at SAVINA Coffee Library.