COFFEE MARKET ANALYSIS ON 06/11/2026 – Robusta maintains upward momentum, Arabica weakens: Is the market diverging or just undergoing a short-term correction?

The global coffee market just recorded a divergent trading session: Robusta on the London exchange recovered slightly, while Arabica in New York continued to weaken, retreating to its lowest level in about five weeks. This development indicates that the two coffee types are being influenced by different supply and demand factors, rather than moving in tandem with a common trend.

In Vietnam, bulk green coffee prices showed signs of edging up in some localities, but pressure from the new harvest remains present. The key question now is not only whether prices can recover, but also whether the upward momentum from the international market is strong enough to absorb the gradually emerging supply.

1. Coffee prices on 06/11: Robusta and Arabica move in opposite directions

According to closing data from the session on 05/11/2026, the futures market recorded a clear divergence between the two main coffee types.

Note: These are the closing prices from the trading session on November 5, used for market analysis on November 6; they are not live trading quotes at the time of reading.

Robusta edged up as the market reacted to downward revisions in India’s coffee production forecast. Conversely, Arabica faced pressure from Brazil’s supply outlook and increasing inventories in ICE-certified warehouses.

Notably, Robusta’s gain remains modest. This is not yet a strong enough signal to confirm a new bullish cycle, especially as Vietnam’s supply enters its seasonal peak.

2. Domestic coffee prices: Cautious recovery

As of 10:37 on November 6, 2026, bulk Robusta coffee prices in several Central Highlands regions recorded slight increases compared to the previous session.

The average reference price across the four regions reached approximately 84,075 VND/kg. Actual prices at individual dealers may vary depending on bean quality, moisture content, impurity ratio, and transaction volume.

Although prices have rebounded in some localities, the overall price level remains significantly lower than at the end of October. The market declined by approximately 2,750 VND/kg, or more than 3%, from an average of around 86,825 VND/kg on October 31 to about 84,075 VND/kg on November 06.

This indicates that the day's upward movement was insufficient to reverse the prior weakening trend. The domestic market continues to face supply pressure as the new crop harvest expands in the Central Highlands.

Refer to the price trends in the Dak Lak coffee price report for November 06.

3. Arabica under pressure from Brazil and ICE pending certification volumes

One factor exerting pressure on Arabica is the volume of Brazilian coffee awaiting certification in the ICE warehouse system.

As of early November, approximately 55,396 bags of Brazilian coffee were awaiting grading and certification. This is the highest level in about seven weeks. Upon completion of the certification process, a portion of this coffee may be added to the exchange's certified stocks.

This development warrants monitoring, as certified stocks play a crucial role in assessing the volume of goods available to meet delivery obligations in the futures market.

However, coffee awaiting certification should not be equated with certified stocks. These two figures reflect different states of commodities within the warehouse system.

Conversely, ICE-certified Arabica stocks remain relatively low at approximately 220,379 bags, the lowest level in about seven weeks. This factor could limit further sharp declines if new supply does not quickly convert into deliverable goods.

Thus, Arabica is caught between two opposing forces: Brazilian supply prospects exert downward pressure, while low certified stocks provide price support.

4. Robusta supported by forecasts of reduced Indian output

Unlike Arabica, Robusta has received supportive signals from Indian supply.

The Coffee Board of India has adjusted its production forecast for the 2026/27 crop year down to approximately 380,000 tons, a 5% decrease from the previous forecast of 400,000 tons. The cited reason is below-normal monsoon rainfall.

India is one of the key Robusta-producing countries. Therefore, this downward revision in production forecasts may impact market supply expectations, especially as traders closely monitor crop developments in major producing nations.

Nevertheless, India's reduced forecast is insufficient to offset pressure from other supply sources. For Robusta, Vietnam remains a particularly critical variable at present.

5. Vietnam enters peak harvest season: Supply pressure persists

Harvesting for the 2026/27 crop year has begun in some areas of the Central Highlands and is expected to accelerate in late November. As more new crop coffee enters the market, physical supply may exert downward pressure on domestic purchase prices.

According to published data, Vietnamese coffee exports in October reached approximately 114,000 tons, a 60.6% increase year-on-year. Cumulative exports for the first ten months of the year totaled about 1.57 million tons, up 18.8% compared to the same period last year.

This notable increase reflects high export volumes this year. However, a distinction must be made between export figures and harvest output: rising exports do not necessarily mean all goods originate from the new crop, as deliveries also depend on existing stocks, signed contracts, and logistics progress.

In the short term, as the harvest reaches its peak, sellers may bring goods to market to meet financial needs or capitalize on current prices. If selling volume outpaces buying power, domestic prices will struggle to recover strongly, even if international Robusta prices rise.

Information on exports and crop developments is covered in the coffee market report for November 06, 2026.

6. ICE Stocks: Two coffee types sending divergent signals

ICE warehouse stocks continue to show a divergence between Arabica and Robusta.

• Arabica: Certified stocks stand at approximately 220,379 bags, near recent historical lows. The volume of Brazilian coffee awaiting certification could alter the inventory landscape in the coming weeks.
• Robusta: ICE registered stocks rose to approximately 6,809 lots by late October, before declining to around 6,721 lots in the November 5 session.

For Arabica, the market is focused on the pace at which Brazilian coffee is certified and added to warehouses. For Robusta, the inventory increase in October is a key factor to monitor, as it coincides with the impending surge in Vietnamese supply.

Exchange warehouse stocks do not represent the total global coffee availability. However, they remain a critical indicator of deliverable-grade supplies for futures contracts.

7. Trend outlook: Robusta has support, but insufficient basis to confirm a reversal

Overall, the current coffee market is not driven by a single supply–demand narrative.

Arabica is under pressure from expectations of improved Brazilian supply, rising volumes of coffee awaiting ICE certification, and the potential addition of new stocks to the warehouse system. Nevertheless, certified stocks remain low, warranting caution against assuming a sustained sharp decline.

Robusta receives additional support from India’s lowered production forecast. However, Vietnam’s improving export prospects and harvest pressure are limiting price recovery potential.

In the coming sessions, three key data groups should be monitored:

1. Harvest developments in the Central Highlands: The pace at which new green coffee enters the market will directly impact domestic supply and demand.
2. ICE stocks and certification progress: Particularly the volume of Brazilian Arabica awaiting grading and changes in Robusta stock levels.
3. Price movements on both exchanges: If Robusta continues to rise while domestic prices fail to improve, it may indicate that physical supply pressure outweighs support from the futures market.

For coffee farmers, a few sessions of slight gains are not a definitive signal that the market has bottomed out. Monitoring dealer prices, lot quality, and household cash flow needs remains more important than making selling decisions based solely on the volatility of a single trading session.

The market is in a sensitive phase: Robusta benefits from supportive factors in certain producing countries, but Vietnamese supply is entering its peak period. The next direction will depend on whether international buying power is strong enough to absorb the incoming new crop.