Market Analysis on November 11, 2026 - Brazil Exports Record-Breaking Coffee: When Volumes Outpace Trade Value

The Coffee Market is Witnessing a Notable Paradox: Brazil Exported a Large Quantity of Coffee in October 2026, but the Average Export Price Dropped Significantly Compared to the Same Period Last Year

This is Not Just a Story of One Country Selling More Coffee. It Reflects Changes in the Supply-Demand Balance, Exporter Sales Motivation, and the International Market's Ability to Absorb Supply

Meanwhile, in Vietnam, the 2026/27 Harvest is Entering the Acceleration Phase. Two Supply Lines from Brazil and the Central Highlands are Emerging at a Time When the Market is Adjusting Price Expectations

Brazil Exports 4.79 Million Bags in a Month

According to Brazil's Trade Data Released at the Beginning of November, Green Coffee Exports in October 2026 Reached Approximately 287,348 Tons, Equivalent to 4.79 Million 60-Kg Bags

Compared to the 233,094 Tons of October 2025, Exports Increased by Approximately 23%. This is a Very Large Export Volume, Indicating Brazil's Supply Capacity Remains at a High Scale

Source: ADM Investor Services, Brazil Coffee Exports Jump 23%, November 9, 2026, Citing Brazil's Export Data

A Key Point to Note is that Exports Increased Not Only Due to a Large Harvest. It Also Shows That Goods Are Being Introduced to the Market at a Considerable Pace

In the Commodities Market, When Supply Increases Faster Than Absorption Capacity, Sellers Typically Have to Compete More Heavily on Price, Delivery Terms, and Payment Terms

Paradox: Exports Increased by 23%, but Average Export Price Dropped by Nearly 15%

This is a Detail Worth Analyzing Further

According to Secex Data Compiled Through Trade Sources, Brazil's Average Export Price for Coffee in October 2026 Decreased by Approximately 14.69% Compared to the Same Period Last Year, Dropping to Approximately $5,568 per Ton

Meanwhile, export revenue reached approximately $1.6 billion, up 5.2% from the same period last year.

These three indicators paint a fairly clear picture:

• Export volume has increased significantly.
• Revenue has increased, but at a much lower rate than production growth.
• The average export price per ton has decreased substantially.

This means Brazil is selling more coffee, but the value per unit is lower.

It's essential to distinguish between the average export price and the ICE futures price. The average price is a composite result of product mix, quality, contract timing, and commercial conditions. It's not the spot price of a specific coffee.

Reference source: Secex export figures – Brazil Coffee Exports October 2026.

The weakening of the Brazilian Real is changing the sales dynamics.

Another factor affecting the market is the exchange rate of the Brazilian Real.

According to the market report on November 10 by Barchart, which was reposted on TradingView, the Real has fallen to its lowest level in about 15 months against the USD.

For Brazilian exporters, this creates a notable mechanism.

When the domestic currency weakens, a dollar-denominated revenue can be converted into more Reals. As a result, producers and exporters may have more incentive to sell rather than hold stock in anticipation of higher prices.

That doesn't mean all producers will immediately sell. The decision to sell still depends on production costs, financial obligations, inventory, and future price expectations.

However, when the exchange rate favors exports, the supply offered to the market may increase even if international prices do not rise.

Source: Barchart – Coffee Prices Slide as the Brazilian Real Weakens and Supplies Build, 10/11/2026.

Robusta and Arabica are facing pressure in different ways.

It's not advisable to view the entire coffee market as a homogeneous commodity. Arabica and Robusta have different supply structures, buyer groups, and substitution levels.

For Arabica, the volume of Brazilian coffee entering the market directly affects the expectations of this segment's supply. When exports surge and the Real weakens, the market has more reason to reassess the prices being maintained.

For Robusta, the story is more complex. Brazil has a significant Conilon production volume, but Vietnam and Indonesia are still major suppliers. Therefore, the pressure on Robusta does not solely depend on Brazil but also on the progress of harvesting and exports in Southeast Asia.

This is why there may be instances where Arabica prices drop more sharply than Robusta, despite both being affected by increased supply expectations.

Market price on November 11: Pressure has been reflected in domestic prices.

In Vietnam, updated purchasing data at 10:37 on November 11, 2026, recorded the price of green coffee beans in surveyed regions at around 83,800–84,300 VND/kg.

On the futures market, the updated exchange table recorded overnight on 10–11/11 notes:

• Robusta London January 2027: 3,253 USD/ton, down 14 USD/ton.
• Arabica New York December 2026: 272.20 cent/pound, down 1.40 cent/pound.
• Arabica Brazil December 2026: 345.55 USD/60 kg bag, down 0.25 USD/bag.

Source: Domestic coffee prices table, updated 10:37 on 11/11/2026 and futures market exchange table C&C Coffee.

Notably, domestic prices fell simultaneously with futures prices, while new crop quantities are gradually appearing on the market.

Domestic prices not only reflect the fluctuations of the London exchange. They are also influenced by the quantity of goods that can be purchased by wholesalers, the export company's shipping requirements, and the price difference between physical goods and futures.

Vietnam is entering a sensitive stage of the harvest season

The time of November is a critical period for the Vietnamese Robusta market.

Harvesting activities in the Central Highlands are expanding and are expected to reach a peak by the end of November, according to industry information released earlier.

According to Reuters, as reported on Business Recorder on 06/11, Vietnam's coffee exports in October reached approximately 114,000 tons, up 60.6% from the same period last year. Cumulative exports from January to October reached approximately 1.57 million tons, up 18.8%.

Source: Reuters – Vietnam coffee domestic prices fall further on rising supplies amid harvest

This indicates that Vietnam's export supply is at a notable level. However, it is not possible to assume that all October exports are new crop coffee. Inventory from the previous crop, delivery contracts, and logistics progress also play a crucial role.

In the coming weeks, the amount of new green coffee entering the market will be a variable to closely monitor. If farmers simultaneously sell their goods while businesses have not yet accelerated their purchases, domestic prices may continue to face pressure.

Is the market pricing futures more than the present?

This is a point to distinguish when reading price developments in November.

Coffee prices do not only reflect the amount of goods in stock. They also reflect forecasts of production, export capacity, and consumption demand in the following months.

In the case of Brazil, the significant increase in exports indicates that actual goods are being brought to the market. A weak Real can continue to support the selling momentum. In contrast, Vietnam's harvest season increases expectations of Robusta supply in the short term.

However, this is not enough to conclude that the market will enter a prolonged downward cycle.

To confirm a sustainable downward trend, it is necessary to observe the ability of Brazil to maintain its export pace, the actual amount of goods from Vietnam and Indonesia, certified inventory on ICE, and the purchasing power of roasters.

If Brazil's exports continue at a high level and Vietnam's market supply increases rapidly, price pressure will have a basis to maintain. Conversely, if demand for delivery increases or actual supply is disrupted by weather, the market may experience recovery phases.

Three signals to monitor in the second half of November

First, Brazil's sales pace. It is necessary to see if the record October exports will continue or are just a concentrated surge at the time of delivery.

Second, Vietnam's harvest progress. The actual amount of goods leaving the farm and entering the distribution system will determine the degree of short-term supply pressure.

Third, exchange rates and inventory levels. The Real, USD, and certified inventory on ICE can cause futures prices to fluctuate differently from physical prices in producing countries.

For exporters, it is necessary to monitor futures prices, FOB prices, exchange rates, and quality differentials simultaneously. For roasters, planning purchases according to production needs and target inventory levels will be more important than trying to accurately predict the bottom price.

The market has additional supply, but what is more worth noting is the speed at which this supply is converted into traded goods. Brazil is showing a large sales capacity; Vietnam is entering the harvest season. These two developments will continue to shape the Robusta balance in the coming weeks.

Analysis based on public data up to November 11, 2026. Prices are reference data at the time of update, not trading prices or investment recommendations.