1. Today's coffee prices on 12/10/2026 in the domestic market

Coffee prices in the Central Highlands provinces show no significant change compared to last weekend's levels. Green robusta bean purchase prices are commonly in the range of VND 92,200–93,000/kg. The maintenance of high price levels indicates that the domestic market still has support, although there is not yet sufficient information to establish a new upward trend.

Note: The price table reflects input data for the bulletin dated 12/10/2026. Actual prices may vary by locality, quality, moisture content, impurity ratio, delivery method, and payment terms of each purchasing entity.

Why do domestic coffee prices remain high?

Green robusta bean prices depend not only on futures exchange fluctuations. The prices offered by enterprises and dealers are also influenced by exchange rates, transportation costs, delivery demand, available household stocks, and the basis between physical goods and futures contracts.

When the international market rises, domestic prices may be adjusted based on expectations of replacement sourcing costs. Conversely, if futures prices fall but sellers are unwilling to release goods at lower levels, domestic prices may adjust slowly. This is why domestic coffee prices do not necessarily fluctuate with the same magnitude or timing as the London exchange.

The level of VND 92,200–93,000/kg should therefore be viewed as a price-holding state at the time of survey, not as evidence that the market has established a long-term support zone. To assess the sustainability of this level, it is necessary to continue monitoring futures prices, exchange rates, harvest progress, and the actual volume of goods brought to market.

2. Global coffee market: Robusta recovers, Arabica under pressure

The two main coffee varieties are being affected by different supply and demand factors. London Robusta is supported by covering purchases and inventory news, while New York Arabica faces pressure from South American export volumes. This divergence shows that one should not use the movement of a single exchange to directly infer conditions for the entire coffee market.

London Robusta: Prices rebound but trend confirmation is needed

According to the newsletter, the November 2026 Robusta futures contract on ICE Futures Europe closed at USD 3,470/tonne, up by USD 47/tonne, equivalent to a 1.37% increase from the previous session.

A supporting factor noted by the market is the decline in certified Robusta coffee stocks. As deliverable inventory on the exchange shrinks, the market may become more sensitive to additional buying demand. However, exchange stocks represent only a portion of supply; certified stocks should not be equated with total global coffee availability.

Short-covering activity can also trigger short-term rebounds. Traders closing prior short positions must buy back contracts, creating additional buying pressure, but this does not necessarily reflect an increase in end-consumer demand.

Therefore, the 1.37% rise is a positive signal for Robusta, but insufficient to confirm a new bullish cycle. It remains necessary to monitor whether prices sustain these gains, whether stocks continue to decline, and whether actual delivery demand improves.

New York Arabica: Supply pressure remains a key factor to watch.

In contrast to Robusta, the December 2026 Arabica futures contract on ICE Futures US was recorded at 286.95 US cents/lb. This movement reflects corrective pressure amid supply from Brazil and other South American countries entering the market.

As export volumes rise, international buyers gain more supply options, thereby reducing short-term scarcity. If shipment rates are maintained while import demand does not increase correspondingly, Arabica prices may remain under pressure.

However, high export volumes do not automatically imply global oversupply. To determine the supply-demand balance, export data must be correlated with production, consumption, stocks, shipment progress, and import demand in major consuming markets.

Arabica on the B3 Brazil exchange.

Input data shows the December 2026 Arabica futures contract on the B3 Brazil exchange trading around USD 350 per 60 kg bag. This price must be verified against the correct contract code, listing unit, exchange rate, and data timestamp before direct comparison with New York prices.

Prices across different exchanges cannot be compared using absolute figures alone, as contract specifications, currency units, delivery mechanisms, and reference coffee quality may differ.

3. Brazil exports: Increased supply puts pressure on Arabica prices

Brazil remains a critical variable in the global coffee market due to its production scale, export volume, and influence on Arabica supply. According to the September 2026 report from the Council of Coffee Exporters of Brazil (Cecafé), Brazilian coffee exports reached 3.894 million 60 kg bags in the month, a 3.1% increase from the 3.778 million bags exported in the same period of 2025. Export revenue totaled USD 1.282 billion, a 7.1% decrease year-on-year.

The divergence between export volume growth and declining revenue is notable. When volumes rise but revenue falls, the average export value per bag tends to be lower. Nevertheless, this indicator alone cannot conclude that global coffee prices have fallen proportionally, as varietal mix, quality, destination markets, and contract timing also affect revenue.

For the futures market, increased exports can alleviate concerns about immediate spot shortages. This exerts downward pressure on Arabica if the market had previously priced in high scarcity. The actual impact depends on whether new shipments continue to increase in subsequent months and whether roasters' consumption rates can absorb the supply.

It is important to distinguish that monthly export figures reflect goods delivered to the market, not the entire crop output for the season. To assess sustainable trends, one must also monitor cumulative export data, production forecasts, producer-country stocks, and import levels in major consuming nations.

Data source: Cecafé's September 2026 Brazil Coffee Export Report.

4. El Niño and weather risks: Factors that could alter supply expectations

While Brazilian export data creates short-term supply pressure, weather outlooks have the potential to impact production expectations in the coming months and seasons. These are two distinct sets of factors with different time horizons and require separate analysis.

El Niño is a climate phenomenon associated with abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon can alter rainfall patterns, temperatures, and humidity distribution in many agricultural producing regions. However, the specific impact depends on the region, the stage in the growth cycle, and local climatic conditions.

Risks for Brazil

In Brazil, weather impacts must be assessed by growing region and coffee tree development stage. Prolonged drought or high temperatures during sensitive phases can affect vegetative growth, flowering, fruit set, and bean development. Conversely, excessive rainfall at unfavorable times can hinder harvesting, drying, and green coffee quality.

Therefore, the market needs to monitor actual rainfall, soil moisture, crop conditions, and seasonal forecast updates. Information about intensifying El Niño alone is insufficient to determine the extent of Brazil's production decline or corresponding price increases.

Risks for Vietnam

For Vietnamese Robusta, weather conditions in the Central Highlands directly affect supply. Rainfall during fruit development, soil conditions, water retention capacity, and irrigation resources can all influence crop yield and quality.

If adverse weather persists and reduces yield prospects, the market may add a risk premium to futures prices. However, price reactions also depend on current inventory levels, alternative supply from other countries, and consumption demand. A negative weather forecast does not guarantee an immediate price increase, especially when commercial supplies are readily available.

Climate reference source: National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting – Annual climate forecast from August 2026 to July 2027 .

5. Why can Robusta and Arabica prices move in opposite directions?

Although Robusta and Arabica belong to the same coffee market, they do not share identical supply and demand structures. These two product lines differ in production regions, quality characteristics, consumption patterns, and substitutability in roasters' blending formulas.

Robusta is widely used in instant coffee and many espresso or commercial blends. Arabica typically holds a larger share in the roasted coffee segment that prioritizes flavor profiles. Substitution between the two coffee types is limited by quality requirements, cost, and product positioning.

Therefore, when Robusta inventories tighten while Arabica supply from Brazil increases, the two exchanges may react differently. This divergence may also shift if the price spread between the two coffee types leads roasters to adjust their blending formulas, or if there are significant fluctuations in exchange rates and import demand.

For Vietnamese exporting enterprises, it is necessary to monitor not only London Robusta prices but also the price differential between Robusta and Arabica, exchange rates, actual offer prices, and quality premiums or discounts based on quality, delivery terms, and contract conditions.

6. Short-term coffee price outlook: Three scenarios to monitor

Amidst sideways movement in domestic prices, with Robusta recovering and Arabica facing supply pressure, the market may evolve in various directions. The following scenarios provide an analytical framework of conditions, not specific price targets or certain forecasts.

Scenario 1: Prices remain stable

If Robusta maintains its recent closing level, inventories do not decline too rapidly, and no new significant weather information emerges, domestic coffee prices may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range. Buyers and sellers will await clearer signals from early-week trading sessions and physical trading activity.

Scenario 2: Prices rise again

A bullish scenario becomes more likely if Robusta continues to rise, certified inventories decrease further, physical buying demand improves, or crop prospects deteriorate. In such cases, domestic prices may find support, but the specific extent of the increase will still depend on exchange rates, available supply, and individual companies' purchasing policies.

Scenario 3: Prices correct downward

If Brazilian exports remain strong, inventories improve, or Robusta fails to sustain its recovery momentum, the market may face downward correction pressure. Domestic prices may react if buyers lower their purchase offers or sellers increase the volume offered to the market. However, the degree of decline does not necessarily correspond one-to-one with futures market fluctuations.

7. What should coffee farmers and businesses monitor?

• Coffee farmers: Monitor actual local purchase prices, compare multiple buying points, and calculate costs and cash flow needs before deciding to sell.
• Agents and traders: Monitor the spread between domestic and futures prices, cost of capital, cargo quality, and ability to deliver on time.
• Exporting enterprises: Monitor futures prices, exchange rates, actual offer prices, price differentials, inventories, and contract fulfillment progress to manage risk.
• Roasters: Monitor Robusta and Arabica trends separately, raw material costs for each product line, and the ability to adjust blending structures.

Do not make buying or selling decisions based solely on a single session's gain or loss. Combine price trends, actual supply, inventories, exchange rates, and delivery demand to assess risk.

8. Conclusion: Coffee prices on October 12, 2026, await new momentum

On October 12, 2026, the coffee market started the week with stable domestic prices at VND 92,200–93,000/kg. London Robusta closed at USD 3,470/tonne, up 1.37%, while New York Arabica was recorded at 286.95 US cents/lb. These data indicate that the two coffee types are subject to different driving forces.

In the short term, Brazilian exports and inventory developments will continue to influence the supply-demand balance. In the long term, weather conditions and yield prospects in key growing regions may alter market expectations. However, there is insufficient basis to assert that prices will move definitively in either direction.

For Vietnamese farmers and businesses, it is crucial to simultaneously monitor domestic prices, futures prices, and actual supply-demand data. A prudent assessment based on multiple indicators is more useful than inferring trends from a single fluctuation.