The trading session on October 20, 2026 witnessed a clear upturn in the global coffee market. The breakout momentum from international futures exchanges such as London and New York quickly spread, positively impacting actual purchase prices in key growing regions of the Central Highlands.
Developments on international futures exchanges
On ICE Futures Europe (London), Robusta futures for November 2026 delivery closed at USD 3,484 per tonne, up 2.05% from the previous session. Purchase contracts surged amid no clear signs of improvement in short-term green coffee bean supply from major exporting countries.
On ICE Futures US (New York), Arabica futures for December 2026 delivery rose sharply by 2.67%, reaching 315.7 US cents/lb. Following this positive trend, Brazilian Arabica contracts (BM&F Bovespa) for December 2026 also recorded a 3.31% increase, jumping to USD 384.5 per 60-kg bag.
The simultaneous rise in both trading regions reflects existing commercial supply shortages, especially as financial capital continues to flow back into agricultural commodities.
Domestic green coffee bean procurement market in the Central Highlands
In sync with the international market, domestic green coffee bean prices in the Central Highlands provinces rose uniformly by VND 200/kg compared to the previous session, maintaining a stable recovery trend. Transaction prices ranged from VND 92,300 to VND 93,200/kg.
- Dak Nong: Reached the highest level in the region at VND 93,200/kg (up VND 200/kg, equivalent to 0.22%).
- Dak Lak: Recorded a price of VND 93,000/kg (up VND 200/kg, equivalent to 0.22%).
- Gia Lai: Held steady at VND 93,000/kg (up VND 200/kg, equivalent to 0.22%).
- Lam Dong: Stood at VND 92,300/kg (up VND 200/kg, equivalent to 0.22%).
Price differentials between localities accurately reflect logistics conditions, domestic transportation costs, and the available collection demand of export enterprises in each region.
Analysis of fundamental factors affecting prices
The breakthrough in the coffee market on October 20, 2026 stemmed from the convergence of multiple technical and fundamental factors:
- Certified stocks near record lows: Certified Robusta and Arabica stock levels on the two ICE exchanges continued to remain at record lows. The shortage of available inventory makes the market highly sensitive to any news of supply disruptions.
- Impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon: Concerns about drought and extreme weather caused by El Niño are directly threatening yields for the upcoming crop season in South American and Southeast Asian countries. This has raised concerns about potential overall production declines.
- Exchange rate factors and the Brazilian Real: The strengthening of Brazil's local currency (the Real) against the USD has limited selling pressure from Brazilian farmers, thereby tightening Arabica supply and driving prices sharply higher on the New York exchange.