Coffee Market Analysis for October 22, 2026: Robusta Declines, Arabica Recovers

The global coffee market recorded divergent trends between the two main coffee types during the trading session on October 22, 2026. Robusta prices on the London exchange continued to decline, while Arabica on the New York exchange recovered. In Vietnam, green bean prices in the Central Highlands region decreased by VND 2,000/kg compared to the previous day.

This development indicates that the coffee market remains simultaneously influenced by supply and demand dynamics, futures trading activities, and investor expectations. Domestically, the entry into the new harvest season is also a factor to monitor when assessing supply sources and price trends in the coming period.

1. London Robusta coffee prices on October 22, 2026

On ICE Futures Europe, the November 2026 Robusta contract was recorded at USD 3,352/tonne, down USD 58/tonne, equivalent to 1.70% from the previous session. The January 2027 contract fell by USD 60/tonne to USD 3,364/tonne; the March 2027 contract dropped by USD 67/tonne to USD 3,344/tonne.

The downward trend across multiple contract months indicates that adjustment pressure is not limited to near-term contracts. However, to determine whether the downtrend will continue, it is necessary to further monitor trading volumes, market positions, exchange rate movements, and supply and demand information from key producing countries.

Source: global coffee price data published on October 22, 2026. Prices should be cross-referenced based on the same closing time.

2. Central Highlands green bean prices drop uniformly

The domestic coffee market recorded a decrease of VND 2,000/kg in key purchasing localities. Surveyed prices ranged from VND 91,200 to VND 92,000/kg.

Lam Dong recorded the lowest price in the survey, while Dak Nong reached the highest. Actual prices at individual dealers may vary depending on coffee quality, moisture content, impurity ratio, delivery method, and payment terms.

The decline in domestic prices in tandem with London Robusta reflects the linkage between the domestic market and international benchmark prices. However, purchase prices in Vietnam do not fluctuate entirely in line with exchange rates, as they are also influenced by actual supply, export demand, exchange rates, and trade differentials.

3. New York Arabica recovers while Robusta weakens

Contrary to the trend in London, the December 2026 Arabica contract on ICE Futures US was reported by a market source at 316.15 US cents/pound, up 1.56% from the previous session.

However, another data source reported 316.55 US cents/pound, an increase of 1.69%. Therefore, before announcing the final figure, it is necessary to clarify the update time and the session closing price of the contract. This analysis uses the figure of 316.15 US cents/pound from the price report dated October 22, 2026, and notes the discrepancy to avoid confusion.

The recovery in Arabica indicates that the two coffee types may react differently to supply and demand expectations and trading activity. One should not infer that a rise in Arabica prices means the entire coffee market is entering a bullish cycle.

4. Brazilian Arabica Market

For Arabica contracts in the Brazilian market, reference data updated on October 22, 2026, recorded the December 2026 contract at 389.05 USD/60 kg bag, an increase of 2.65 USD, equivalent to 0.69%.

This price differs from the figure of 390.50 USD/bag cited in the initial data. As it has not been verified that the two prices were recorded at the same time and under the same trading conditions, they should not be used for direct comparison or percentage change calculations.

When analyzing Brazilian Arabica, it is essential to clearly distinguish between futures contract prices, contract types, delivery months, and quoted units. These differences can cause price tables on the same day to display slightly different figures.

5. Factors to monitor in the coming period

• Vietnamese supply: The harvest progress in the Central Highlands and the actual volume of coffee brought to market may affect purchase prices.
• London Robusta trends: Monitor near-term and far-term contracts to assess whether selling pressure is spreading across the entire futures curve.
• Arabica market: Monitor certified stocks, Brazil's crop outlook, and weather updates from reliable sources.
• Exchange rates and export activity: Exchange rate fluctuations, purchasing demand, and export price differentials may impact domestic green coffee prices.

6. Coffee market outlook for October 22, 2026

The trading session on October 22, 2026, showed London Robusta under downward pressure, while New York Arabica recovered. In Vietnam, bulk green coffee prices in the Central Highlands fell uniformly by 2,000 VND/kg, dropping to the range of 91,200–92,000 VND/kg according to the survey price table.

In the short term, it is necessary to simultaneously monitor domestic harvest progress and developments in international futures contracts. A single session's gain or loss is insufficient to confirm a long-term trend. Coffee farmers, dealers, and exporters should combine benchmark prices with commodity quality, delivery demand, and actual costs before making buying or selling decisions.

References

• Doanh nghiep & Hoi nhap – Coffee prices on October 22, 2026: Domestic market declines, global markets diverge.
• Ca phe hom nay – World coffee price table for London, New York, and Brazil.
• Bao Lam Dong – World coffee prices on October 22, 2026.

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