Vietnamese coffee prices fell faster than Robusta London: Is the seasonal pressure dominating the market?

The coffee market on November 12 is showing a notable signal: Vietnamese domestic coffee prices are under greater pressure than the adjustment level of the Robusta contract on the London exchange. This indicates that the market is not only reacting to international price developments, but is also absorbing an increasingly large volume of fresh goods as the new harvest enters the acceleration phase.

While the futures market is still weighing global supply and low traded inventory, sellers in the Central Highlands are facing a different reality: the new crop is appearing more frequently, farmers' and agents' demand is increasing, and export companies must calculate the timing of purchases and shipments.

Domestic prices are under greater pressure than the decline in London

According to updated data at 02:37 on November 12, 2026, the price of Robusta coffee at key collection points was recorded at 83,800–84,300 dong/kg, averaging 84,025 dong/kg.

• Đắk Lắk: 84,300 dong/kg.
• Gia Lai: 84,000 dong/kg.
• Lâm Đồng: 83,800 dong/kg.
• Đắk Nông old area: 84,000 dong/kg.

In the futures market, the Robusta London contract for January 2027 was recorded at 3,245 USD/ton, down 5 USD, equivalent to 0.15%. Arabica New York was reported at 264.65 cents/pound, down 0.47% according to the same data source.

Source data for domestic and international coffee prices on November 12, 2026.

To better understand the seasonal pressure, we can compare the domestic price on November 9 with the updated price on November 12. On November 9, the four regions were reported at 85,000, 85,000, 84,500, and 85,300 dong/kg, averaging around 84,950 dong/kg. The average reported on November 12 is 84,025 dong/kg, which is around 925 dong/kg lower, equivalent to 1.09%.

In the same period, the Robusta contract for January 2027 was reported at 3,270 USD/ton on November 9 and 3,245 USD/ton on November 12, down around 0.76%.

This comparison shows that domestic prices adjusted more strongly than Robusta futures prices. However, this is a comparison of price reports at different times, not an accurate measure of the difference between spot and futures prices. Local price data also needs to be confirmed at each collection point, as quality, moisture, and shipping conditions may differ.

The new harvest is creating pressure on spot prices

This is the factor to be closely monitored in the second half of November.

The 2026-2027 coffee crop in the Central Highlands has begun in many areas. According to the assessment by the Vietnam Commodity Exchange, the peak harvest period is expected to be at the end of November. The new crop's production is expected to be comparable to the previous crop, but the volume of goods entering the market may be concentrated in a shorter period.

Market report on November 11 by MXV noted the pressure from Brazilian supply and the Vietnamese harvest, while also noting that the initial volume of the new crop does not reflect the entire production of the crop year.

It is essential to distinguish between two concepts: total crop production and the volume of goods offered for sale at any given time. A crop year with minimal production increase can still create short-term downward price pressure if many farmers and agents simultaneously release goods onto the market during the concentrated harvest period.

This is the difference between production supply and commercial supply. The market does not price based solely on the total number of coffee bags that can be harvested, but also reacts to the speed at which fresh goods are introduced into the buying system.

Increased exports do not necessarily mean domestic prices will rise immediately

According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development on October 16, Vietnam exported around 1.45 million tons of coffee in the first 9 months of 2026, worth 6.57 billion USD. The volume increased by 16.3% compared to the same period last year, but the value decreased by 6.9%.

In particular, the average export price in September was around 4,519 USD/ton, up 1.1% from August but 20.6% lower than the same period last year.

Coffee exports reach $6.57 billion, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

These numbers show that export activity still maintains a large volume, but the trade value does not increase correspondingly with the quantity. This has significant implications for the ability to absorb the new crop.

Exporting companies can continue to purchase goods to meet signed contracts, but this does not mean they will buy at unlimited prices. Purchase prices still depend on sales prices, exchange rates, capital costs, product quality, and delivery dates.

In other words, export demand still exists, but purchasing power at any given time may not be sufficient to absorb the entire quantity of coffee being offered for sale.

Arabica inventory on ICE is still low, but Brazilian coffee is entering the delivery system.

One of the reasons the futures market has not fallen further is that the certified Arabica inventory on ICE is still relatively low compared to the same period last year.

According to the market report on November 11 by MXV, the certified Arabica inventory on ICE US has increased to 241,403 bags after adding 8,947 bags in the mentioned session. Although it increased from the 27-year low recorded on September 15, the number is still significantly lower than the 418,203 bags of the same period last year.

Notably, the amount of Brazilian coffee entering the ICE delivery system has also increased. As of November 9, the amount of Brazilian coffee stored in the ICE warehouse system was reported at 103,457 bags, the highest in 14 months. Previously, on November 6, there were 62,849 bags waiting to be classified.

The point to note is that goods arriving at the warehouse do not necessarily mean they have been certified for delivery. Coffee still needs to go through the quality inspection process and meet the standards of the exchange. Therefore, the amount of goods waiting to be classified and the certified inventory need to be monitored separately.

Source: MXV, ICE inventory data, and Brazilian coffee developments.

This creates two opposing forces for Arabica: the low certified inventory is still a supporting factor, but the potential for additional delivery inventory is weakening the story of immediate supply shortages.

For Robusta, do not directly infer the level of market shortage from Arabica inventory. The two types of coffee have different supply systems, origins, and usage requirements.

The market is currently pricing risks for the end of November.

At the current time, the market is balancing between three factors:

• Short-term supply: Vietnam is entering the peak harvest season, Brazil has a large volume of exports, and coffee is being added to the warehouse system.
• Trade demand: Vietnam's exports maintain a high volume, and the demand for Robusta raw materials for blending remains a supporting factor.
• Medium-term production risks: weather and the risk of El Niño may affect regions in the coming months, but the impact on production needs to be confirmed by actual data.

In the short term, the pressure from the harvest season may continue to cause domestic coffee prices to fluctuate weakly, especially when a large quantity of goods is offered for sale. However, it should not be assumed that prices will continuously decrease simply because it is harvest season.

If the goods are sold quickly but export demand absorbs well, prices may soon find a balance. Conversely, if the quantity of goods offered to the market exceeds the purchasing power of companies, the pressure on domestic prices will continue, even if the London futures price only adjusts slightly.

Three signals to watch out for in the coming sessions

Firstly, the speed of the domestic price decrease compared to London. If the domestic price continues to decrease faster than the Robusta contract for January 2027, this gap will reflect the pressure of real sales and the selling psychology during the harvest season. If the domestic price decrease slows down, it may be a signal that the selling pressure from the initial crop is being absorbed.

Secondly, the certified inventory at ICE. For Arabica, monitor the amount of Brazilian coffee being transferred from the waiting classification status to the certified inventory. If this quantity increases rapidly, the market may adjust the degree of scarcity of the delivery inventory.

Thirdly, export activity and the average export price of Vietnam. An increase in export volume is a positive signal for trade, but the value and export price indicate the ability to convert goods into revenue. This is an important indicator to evaluate the actual purchasing power of the international market.

Prospects: Pressure from the harvest season does not necessarily mean a long-term downward cycle

The current situation leans towards short-term pressure on domestic coffee prices. However, to confirm a long-term downward trend, the market needs additional evidence of actual supply, the ability to recover inventory, and consumption rates in the coming months.

With Robusta, the decisive factor is not just how much Vietnam harvests, but also the quantity of goods put on the market each month and the rate of absorption by exporting companies.

With Arabica, the volume of Brazilian goods entering the system of receiving warehouses is a factor that needs to be closely monitored, as it can change the balance between the story of inventory shortages and the prospects of new supply.

In that context, the price range around 84,000 VND/kg is currently an interesting reference area of the domestic market, but there is not enough data to confirm that this is the bottom of the crop year. What needs to be observed is the reaction of buying power when prices fall, rather than just looking at the amount of money reduced in each session.

The coffee market is entering a stage where the speed of circulation of actual goods may be no less important than the prospects of global production. Sellers need to monitor prices at the point of purchase and the quality of the shipment; companies need to monitor the difference between purchase price, futures price, and delivery obligations. These will be the factors that determine the ability to form a new price floor in the second half of November.