Market Analysis of Coffee on 03/11/2026: International Market Recovers, but Domestic Market Still Faces Pressure to Sell

The coffee market on 03/11 is showing two opposite trends. On international exchanges, both Robusta and Arabica have recovered in the trading session. Meanwhile, green coffee prices in the Central Highlands are still under pressure from the new crop supply.

The point of interest is not how much the international price has increased, but why the recovery on the exchange has not been transmitted to the domestic coffee price. As Vietnam enters the main harvest season, short-term supply pressure may be overriding the positive impact from the futures market.

1. International Coffee Price Trend

Robusta London: Recovery Momentum Appears on Multiple Terms

According to updated data on 03/11, the November 2026 Robusta futures contract is recorded at around $3,256 per ton, up from the previous session. The longer-term contracts also maintained a green tone:

Data reference from public price tables on 03/11/2026. The milestones may differ at the time of update.

This trend shows that the recovery momentum is not limited to a single term. However, caution is needed when evaluating the intensity of the increase: the November 2026 contract has characteristics of liquidity and maturity different from the longer-term contracts. Do not take the increase of the nearest contract as the sole representative for the entire term structure.

One notable point is that longer-term futures contracts are currently lower than the nearest contract. This structure is known as backwardation, where the nearby futures price is higher than the distant futures price. It reflects the relative value of nearby coffee stocks still being higher in the current market structure, but this phenomenon alone is not enough to conclude that the global market is experiencing a shortage of goods.

Before the rebound, Robusta was subject to significant downward pressure and at one point approached the region of $3,140 per ton. Therefore, the current rally may be an activity to buy back positions or a reaction to supply risk. The market needs additional sessions to maintain the upward trend and improved liquidity to confirm the change in trend.

Source: Giacaphe247 and BCCE.

Arabica New York: Low inventory continues to be a supporting factor

The December 2026 Arabica futures contract was recorded at 292.10 cents/pound, up 4.90 cents in the morning price update. Another source recorded a level of 294.15 cents/pound at a different point in the session.

These two prices should not be averaged as they were updated at different times. However, both reflect the recovery trend of Arabica on November 3.

A notable point is that the certified Arabica inventory on ICE is still at a low level. Reuters reported approximately 225,068 bags, while another data table recorded 220,917 bags at a different update point.

These are different data points in time, not two estimates that can be combined or averaged. However, they both indicate that certified inventory is still at a low level compared to recent history.

Low inventory may support prices because the market must be concerned about the ability to meet actual delivery needs. Brazil's improved crop prospects in the future do not mean that the coffee qualified for immediate delivery is already available.

On the other hand, a weakening Brazilian Real may create an incentive for Brazilian farmers to sell due to more attractive domestic currency revenue. This is a factor putting pressure on futures prices, but it is currently being offset by concerns about low certified inventory.

Source: Business Recorder – Reuters market report and BCCE.

Arabica Brazil: Thin trading volume makes price signal unreliable.

The December 2026 Arabica Brazil futures contract was recorded around 357.60 USD/60 kg. However, the trading volume was only 3 contracts, much lower than the average of 657 contracts according to the published data.

With low trading volume, the price remains stagnant and does not fully reflect the supply and demand strength. It may simply be the result of a lack of new transactions.

Therefore, the Arabica Brazil price movement should not be used as a confirmation signal for the overall Arabica market trend on November 3. It is necessary to monitor the trading volume, exports, and domestic Brazilian prices before making a certain conclusion.

2. Central Highlands coffee prices: Pressure from new crop supply.

While international futures prices have recovered, the domestic market continues to face pressure. However, publicly available sources have different price levels and update times.

Table of reference prices based on one update point of BCCE on November 3, 2026.

Some morning surveys recorded a higher average price range of 85,200-86,000 VND/kg. The difference may come from the update time, purchase location, product quality, and aggregation method.

Do not take different price tables and calculate the average. The actual price received by the dealer also depends on moisture, impurity ratio, bean quality, and delivery conditions.

What's more noteworthy is the trend of decline appearing in many price charts. This is a sign that the physical market is under pressure, even though international futures prices have seen a rebound.

3. Brazil: Prospects for supply are improving

Rabobank's September 2026 report shows that market prospects are shifting from concerns about supply shortages due to weather to expectations of improved supply and a potential recovery in global inventories.

Some notable data points:

• Brazil exported 4.15 million 60 kg coffee bags in August 2026, up 22% from the previous month and 31% from the same period last year.
• Cumulative exports from January to July 2026 were still 2.2% lower than the same period last year.
• Rabobank recorded significantly higher rainfall in September in Arabica and Conilon production regions than the 15-year historical average.
• Favourable weather conditions support the prospects for the 2027/28 crop, particularly during the flowering and vegetative growth stages.

Cecafé's data provides a different perspective: Brazil exported 3.894 million coffee bags in September 2026, up 3.1% from September 2025, but foreign exchange earnings fell 7.1%, to $1.282 billion.

This shows that increased exports do not necessarily mean higher revenue. Average selling prices, product mix, and market conditions all have an impact.

Therefore, the pressure from Brazil should be understood on two levels. In the short term, low Arabica inventories and the actual volume of goods delivered still failing to meet expectations may support prices. In the medium term, favourable weather and prospects for the next crop may reduce the risk premium for supply.

Source: Rabobank – Brazilian Coffee Monthly Update and Cecafé.

4. Vietnam: New crop supply is putting pressure on physical prices

Vietnam is entering the main harvest season. As new supplies begin to enter the market, physical supply in the short term may increase. If demand is not strong enough to absorb this volume, domestic buying prices may still fall even as international futures prices rebound.

According to Vietnam News on October 26, 2026, the peak harvest period is expected to occur at the end of October and early November. The article also notes concerns about hot and dry weather in some growing regions, and that harvesting, drying, and transportation activities may be affected if prolonged rain occurs at the end of the rainy season.

That does not mean that the entire new crop has been brought to market. Harvest progress, ripeness, drying conditions, and farmer decisions to sell are all variables that need to be monitored.

If farmers increase sales during the peak harvest period, businesses will have more sourcing options and buying prices may come under pressure. Conversely, if sales slow down after a strong price drop, the market may find a new equilibrium.

Source: Vietnam News – Coffee harvest season begins as selling prices face uncertainty.

5. ICE inventories: Arabica and Robusta have different structures

One factor to watch is the certified inventory of the two ICE exchanges.

• Arabica: certified inventory is at a low level, around 220,000-225,000 bags according to the updates published.
• Robusta: ICE inventory increased to 6,809 lots at the end of last week, the highest level in about 1.25 years, then decreased slightly to 6,711 lots in Tuesday's session.

This difference is very noteworthy. Arabica is still affected by concerns about low inventory, while the increase in Robusta inventory reduces concerns about short-term delivery capacity.

Do not analyze both coffee types with a common argument that global supply is either all short or all abundant. The supply-demand structure of each coffee line has differences.

6. Three scenarios to watch in the coming sessions

Scenario 1: International prices continue to recover

However, if Robusta maintains its recovery zone and Arabica continues to hold its green color, the market may improve buying sentiment. Nevertheless, domestic prices may only benefit more when actual purchasing demand increases and supply is not overly abundant.

Scenario 2: Technical rebound on the exchange but domestic supply continues to increase

This is a situation that requires special attention. If farmers and wholesalers increase sales during the peak harvest period, domestic prices may continue to weaken despite a lack of decline in futures prices. The difference between the floor price and the physical purchase price at that time may change based on export costs, quality, and shipping demand.

Scenario 3: Weather disrupts harvesting and drying

If prolonged rain occurs in harvesting regions, the progress of bringing goods to market may slow down. However, the impact on prices will depend on the degree of impact on production, quality, and the duration of the disruption. It should not be assumed that rain is an immediate factor in increasing prices.

SAVINA's Perspective

On November 3, a recovery signal was seen on the futures market, but it has not yet created a corresponding reversal in the domestic green coffee market. This is an important difference between financial prices and physical commodity prices.

SAVINA assesses that the market is currently in a phase of differentiation. Low Arabica inventory still provides support, while the prospect of Brazilian supply and Vietnam's harvesting progress puts pressure on prices. Robusta shows signs of recovery, but more evidence from trading volume and futures price movements is needed to confirm the trend.

In the short term, it is necessary to observe simultaneously three factors: the ability of Robusta and Arabica to maintain their recovery rhythm, the harvesting speed in the Central Highlands, and the actual purchasing power of export enterprises.

For coffee growers, the decision to sell should be linked to the quality of the goods, financial needs, and storage capacity, rather than just reacting to a single increase or decrease in price. For purchasing and exporting companies, it is necessary to monitor the difference between futures prices, physical prices, and shipping costs to assess the actual profit margin.

The market currently has a recovery signal, but a sustainable upward trend still needs to be confirmed by multiple trading sessions and an improvement in demand for physical goods.