COFFEE MARKET ANALYSIS FOR 07/11/2026 – Robusta and Arabica both recover: New buying pressure or short-covering?

Following the mixed trading session on 05/11, the global coffee market rebounded across the board on Friday, 06/11. London Robusta rose nearly 0.9%, while New York Arabica gained over 1% after hitting its lowest price level in approximately five weeks.

On the surface, this is a positive signal. However, speculative fund positioning data reveals a notable factor: net short Robusta positions are at their highest level in nearly four years. As prices begin to rise, funds buying back previously sold contracts could generate significant upward momentum.

The question is whether this buying pressure is sustainable enough to establish a new uptrend, or merely facilitates a short-term recovery while supply from Brazil and Vietnam continues to increase.

1. Both exchanges recover in the 06/11 session

The trading session on 06/11 saw a simultaneous recovery in the two major coffee varieties.

Price data as of the close on 06/11/2026. The January 2027 Robusta contract and the December 2026 Arabica contract are used as the primary references in this analysis.

Arabica has recovered after retreating to its lowest level in about five weeks. Robusta has also regained upward momentum following the sharp volatility seen in early November.

The notable aspect lies not only in the gains of individual contracts, but also in the simultaneous recovery of both markets in a single session. This indicates that buying interest has returned broadly, although the drivers for each coffee type are not entirely identical.

2. Net short positions of funds: A variable that could amplify the upward momentum

Commitment of Traders (COT) data released on 06/11, reflecting fund positions for the week ending 03/11, shows that speculative funds increased their net short Robusta position by another 4,767 contracts, bringing the total net short position to 16,968 contracts.

This is the largest net short position in nearly four years according to reported data.

Why is this figure worth attention?

When a fund sells futures contracts, it establishes a position that profits if prices fall. However, if the market unexpectedly rises, potential losses also increase. To limit risk, funds may buy back previously sold contracts to close their positions.

This buyback activity is called short covering, i.e., buying to cover short positions.

If many funds engage in this activity within a short period, the resulting buying pressure can drive prices up faster than changes in physical supply and demand would suggest. This is one mechanism that can explain why the market recovers even though the supply outlook is not yet truly tight.

However, a clear distinction must be made:

• A large net short position indicates that the tracked group of funds holds a significant number of sell contracts.
• Short covering can generate buying pressure when short positions are closed.
• This does not mean that funds have switched to net long positions or confirmed a long-term uptrend.

To determine whether capital flows have truly reversed, it is necessary to monitor subsequent COT reports, particularly changes in long positions, short positions, and total open interest.

3. Low Arabica inventories continue to provide support

In the Arabica market, ICE-certified inventories remain a noteworthy factor.

ICE Arabica inventories have declined to approximately 220,379 bags, the lowest level in seven weeks. This figure is only slightly above the near 27-year historical low of approximately 217,646 bags recorded on 15/09/2026.

Low inventories do not mean the global market has run out of coffee. This volume represents coffee meeting specific standards and registered within the exchange’s certified warehouse system, not total production or the entire global commercial coffee volume.

Nevertheless, when deliverable stocks on the exchange are low, the market tends to be more sensitive to changes in supply flows.

Meanwhile, Brazilian coffee awaiting certification at ICE warehouses has risen to 62,849 bags, the highest level in seven weeks. The volume of Brazilian coffee already entered into the ICE warehouse system has also reached approximately 93,683 bags, the highest level in nearly ten months.

These two data points should be read together. On one hand, certified Arabica inventories remain low. On the other hand, the volume of Brazilian coffee awaiting certification and entry into the warehouse system is increasing.

If the certification process proceeds smoothly and new supplies are added quickly, pressure from shortages of deliverable goods may ease. Conversely, if certification progress is slow or the volume of compliant coffee does not increase correspondingly, low inventories may continue to support prices.

4. Robusta: Inventories rise but fund short positions create volatility risk

Robusta presents an inventory picture different from that of Arabica.

ICE Robusta inventories have increased significantly since early October, reaching approximately 6,809 lots by the end of last month. As of 06/11, this figure has decreased to approximately 6,702 lots.

Current inventory levels remain significantly higher than in early October. This indicates that supplies recorded in the warehouse system have improved, although the recent decline may provide short-term support.

For Robusta, the market is balancing three opposing forces:

• Support: India’s 2026/27 coffee crop forecast has been lowered to 380,000 tons, 5% below the previous estimate.
• Downward pressure: ICE inventories have risen significantly since early October, and Vietnamese coffee exports have surged.
• Increased volatility: Speculative funds’ net short positions are at high levels, meaning covering buys could trigger rapid price spikes.

Therefore, a nearly 1% gain is insufficient to conclude that Robusta has entered a new bullish cycle. It remains to be seen whether prices can sustain momentum after short-covering activity subsides.

5. Brazil and Vietnam: Supply remains a major counterweight

While the futures market recovers, supply prospects from two key producing countries, Brazil and Vietnam, continue to exert downward pressure.

Brazil: Pending certification volumes rise; weather requires continued monitoring

The volume of Brazilian coffee awaiting grading at ICE warehouses increased to 62,849 bags, indicating that inflows into the warehouse system are being maintained.

Additionally, rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s key Arabica-producing region, during the week ending October 25 reached approximately 29.6 mm, equivalent to 82% of the historical average according to meteorological data cited in the market report.

More favorable weather conditions during the flowering and fruit development stages could support outlooks for the next crop. However, the final impact will depend on rainfall in the coming months, flowering status, fruit set rates, and weather developments throughout the entire growth cycle.

A single week of favorable rainfall should not be taken as definitive proof that Brazil’s output will increase. The market still needs to monitor longer-term seasonal data.

Vietnam: Exports surge; harvest expands

Vietnam remains a critical variable for global Robusta supply.

According to published figures, Vietnamese coffee exports in October 2026 reached approximately 114,000 tons, a 60.6% increase year-on-year. Cumulative exports from January to October totaled approximately 1.57 million tons, up 18.8%.

Harvesting for the 2026/27 crop year has begun in some areas of the Central Highlands and is expected to peak in late November.

Information from traders in the Central Highlands suggests the new crop’s yield is expected to be comparable to the previous season. If new green coffee enters the market faster than traders’ absorption capacity, domestic prices will struggle to rise sharply despite the recovery in futures prices.

It is important to note that rising exports do not mean all shipped goods come from the new harvest. Delivery contracts, inventories, and logistics progress also affect monthly export volumes.

6. Domestic coffee prices on November 07: Recovery continues but remains uneven

According to data updated at 11:37 on November 07, 2026, across monitored purchasing regions, Robusta green bean prices have rebounded in all four areas.

The average reference price across the four regions stands at approximately 84,425 VND/kg. This is the arithmetic mean of regional quotes, not a fixed transaction price at all dealers.

Compared to the average of 84,075 VND/kg on November 6, the reference price increased by about 350 VND/kg. This marks another recovery session following the sharp decline in late October and early November.

However, viewed more broadly, prices remain significantly lower than the level above 90,000 VND/kg seen in the second half of October. Therefore, the current upward movement should be regarded as a phase of stabilization and initial recovery, not yet a confirmed reversal.

Actual dealer prices may vary depending on moisture content, impurity ratio, bean quality, transaction volume, and delivery terms.

For further reference, see the Central Highlands coffee price list for November 7, 2026.

7. The market is recovering, but it is essential to distinguish between genuine buying demand and short-covering.

The most important aspect of the November 6 session was not merely the rise in Robusta and Arabica prices, but the context of trading positions heavily skewed toward selling for Robusta.

When funds hold large net short positions, the market may experience sharp rallies due to short-covering. This represents real buying activity in the futures market, but does not necessarily reflect a corresponding increase in physical coffee demand.

To assess the quality of the recovery, three signals should be monitored:

1. Fund speculative positions: If net short positions gradually decrease in subsequent reports, short-covering may be underway. If new long positions increase, the signal carries a different implication.
2. Inventory and pending certification stocks: Low Arabica inventories can support prices, but the volume of Brazilian coffee awaiting grading must be monitored to assess potential supply additions.
3. Capacity to absorb new-crop coffee: This is the decisive factor for the resilience of domestic Robusta prices in November. If purchasing by enterprises is strong, prices may maintain a higher plateau; if sales volumes rise rapidly, pressure will return.

In the short term, the market has grounds to sustain its recovery given low Arabica inventories and large Robusta short positions. However, supply prospects from Brazil, India, and Vietnam do not yet present a clear picture of shortage.

For coffee growers, the key factors to monitor are not only how many points the floor price rises, but also actual purchase prices, the pace of new-crop off-take, and the differential between futures and domestic prices. A rally supported by genuine buying demand has a different foundation than one driven primarily by the closing of short positions.

The market is showing signs of recovery, but the answer to the next trend will lie in trading sessions after short-covering buying pressure subsides and Vietnam's new crop supply becomes clearer.

Read more updates on coffee prices, supply and demand, and the market at SAVINA Coffee Knowledge.