MARKET ANALYSIS OF COFFEE ON 09/11/2026: ROBUSTA RECOVERS, PRESSURE FROM NEW CROP STILL LARGE

The coffee market entered a new trading week with positive signals from two international futures exchanges. Robusta London and Arabica New York both increased in the latest session, following a strong adjustment period earlier. However, the situation in the domestic Vietnamese market was quite cautious: West Central coffee prices remained almost unchanged, while the supply from the new crop harvest was gradually appearing.

The notable point in the first week's session was not the increase in futures prices, but the ability to maintain the recovery trend as the selling pressure from major producing countries became increasingly evident.

1. Coffee price movement on 09/11/2026

Domestic market: According to the updated data at 08:04 on 09/11, the average price of Robusta coffee beans in the Central Highlands was 84,425 VND/kg, unchanged from the previous reference level. The highest price recorded in the former Đắk Nông region was 84,700 VND/kg, while the lowest price in Lâm Đồng was 84,000 VND/kg.

The 700 VND/kg price gap between the highest and lowest regions indicates that the purchasing price range still varies by region. The quality of the shipment, harvesting progress, and purchasing demand from each agent continue to affect the actual transaction price.

International market:

The positive point is that both coffee lines rose in the final week. However, this increase needs to be put in the context of the previous sharp decline in Robusta, while Arabica is under pressure from Brazil's supply prospects.

2. Robusta rises again: Is it a sign of a reversal or just a technical rebound?

Robusta has recorded three consecutive increases after falling to its lowest level in over two years. A factor that the market is paying attention to is the activity of buying to close the short positions of investment funds that hold large short positions.

When a large number of investors bet on a downward trend, only a halt in the price decline or supportive information can trigger buying activity to close positions, which can create a relatively quick upward force. This is the mechanism commonly referred to as short covering.

However, it is essential to distinguish between the force of buying to close short positions and the force of buying based on actual consumption demand. Short covering can help the price recover in the short term, but it does not mean that the market has formed a sustainable upward trend.

To confirm the change in trend, Robusta needs to maintain the recovered price range over several sessions and demonstrate strong buying force as new supplies from Vietnam increase.

3. Arabica still faces pressure from Brazil's supply

Unlike Robusta, Arabica's performance is significantly affected by Brazil's supply prospects and the amount of coffee being added to the ICE's certified stock system.

Information about the coffee waiting to be certified and the increase in certified stock in the early days of November is a factor that has caught the market's attention. When more coffee is added to the exchange's certified stock system, concerns about the shortage of immediate supplies may be alleviated.

However, certified stock does not reflect the entire amount of coffee available in the market. This is only one part of the supply and needs to be evaluated in conjunction with export progress, crop quality, the Brazilian Real exchange rate, and import demand.

Therefore, the recent increase in Arabica on November 6 is not enough to conclude that the pressure from Brazil's supply has ended. The market still needs more data to determine whether the buying force can absorb the amount of coffee being released or not.

4. Vietnam enters a critical phase of the new harvest

This is the variable that has the most direct impact on domestic coffee prices in the coming weeks.

The 2026/27 harvest has begun in some areas of the Central Highlands and is expected to peak in the second half of November. As production increases, the amount of green coffee entering the market also tends to increase.

However, increased production does not mean that all the harvested coffee will be sold immediately. Farmers' selling decisions are influenced by cash needs, production costs, drying capacity, grain quality, and price expectations.

The market may experience two opposing forces:

• Force of sale: Increasing new supplies create pressure on wholesalers and purchasing companies, especially when many farmers need to offload their harvest.
• Force of holding: If farmers do not accept low prices, the actual amount of coffee entering the market may be slower than the harvesting pace.

Therefore, it is essential to monitor the actual amount of coffee being traded rather than relying solely on information about cultivated areas or expected production. The purchase price at the Central Highlands will reflect the ratio between the amount of coffee offered for sale and the purchasing power of export companies.

5. Export and demand: The decisive factor in absorbing supply

During the harvest season, the purchasing power of export companies plays a crucial role in the ability to maintain domestic prices. If demand for delivery and export contract signing remains good, companies can increase purchases to supplement raw materials.

On the other hand, if companies already have sufficient quantities for immediate contracts or are cautious due to international price fluctuations, the purchasing pace may slow down. In this case, the amount of new coffee entering the market will exert more pressure on prices at production areas.

A notable data point is Vietnam's coffee exports to Thailand in the first 9 months of 2026, totaling 28,900 tons, down 8.2% in quantity and 12.8% in value compared to the same period last year. This indicates that demand behavior in individual importing markets is not uniform. However, the Thai market does not represent the entire demand for Vietnam's coffee exports.

6. Market trend prediction in the coming sessions

At the time of 09/11, the market is experiencing a divide between the signal of recovery from the futures market and the relatively stable domestic price. This can be seen as a phase of testing the strength of the recovery.

Positive Scenario: If Robusta continues to maintain its upward trend, improves export purchasing activities, and the new coffee supply entering the market does not increase too quickly, domestic prices may receive support. At that time, the rebound on the exchange may spread more clearly to the purchasing areas.

Conservative Scenario: If the upward trend on the exchange is mainly due to short covering, while the new supply increases rapidly and businesses have not yet pushed up purchasing, domestic prices may continue to trade sideways or face pressure to adjust.

In the short term, we need to observe three signals: the performance of the January 2027 Robusta contract, the actual coffee supply entering the market in the Central Highlands, and the level of participation in purchasing by export businesses.

Market Outlook

The rebound of Robusta and Arabica in the last weekend's session created a positive signal, but it is not yet sufficient to confirm a new upward cycle. The market is facing two opposing forces: expectations of a rebound on the futures market and pressure from the new supply from the new harvest.

For Vietnamese Robusta, the price movement in November will depend more on the speed of sales by farmers and the ability of businesses to absorb than on the increase or decrease of an international trading session.

What needs to be monitored is not just whether the price has increased, but whether it can be maintained when the new supply actually enters the market. This is the crucial test for the coffee trend in the early stage of the 2026/27 crop year.