MARKET ANALYSIS OF COFFEE ON NOVEMBER 10, 2026: ROBUSTA HOLDS STEADY, ARABICA FACES SELLING PRESSURE

The trading session on November 9 showed a notable development: Robusta and Arabica began to exhibit two different market states. Robusta experienced a strong increase at one point in the session but ultimately returned to near the bottom, while Arabica fell more sharply and selling pressure was concentrated on near-month contracts.

This is more important than a typical up-and-down session. When looking at the futures structure and the price difference between months, it can be seen that funds are shifting in different ways between the two markets. Meanwhile, coffee prices in the Central Highlands are still maintaining the range of 84,500-85,300 VND/kg, indicating that the domestic market has not fully reacted to the fluctuations on the international exchange.

1. Session 09/11: Two markets, two states

Robusta London: The January 2027 contract opened around the previous Friday's closing price of 3,270 USD/ton. During the session, the price rose to 3,322 USD/ton at one point, but the buying force was not sustained. The contract closed at 3,267 USD/ton, down 3 USD/ton, or approximately 0.09%.

Notably, the closing price was near the bottom of 3,263 USD/ton. This indicates that the buyers were unable to protect most of the increase for the day. However, trading volume was concentrated around 3,292 USD/ton and was thinner in the lower price range. Therefore, it is not yet possible to conclude that a new selling panic has formed based solely on the closing near the bottom.

Arabica New York: The December 2026 contract closed at 273.60 cents/lb, down 6.40 cents/lb, or approximately 2.29%. The opening price was around 280 cents/lb, which rose to 280.60 cents/lb before reversing and falling to the 273 cents/lb range.

Unlike Robusta, the selling pressure on Arabica was more evident through the session's performance. The closing price was significantly lower than the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of 276.04 cents/lb. This indicates that most of the trading activity during the day occurred at prices higher than the closing price, leaving many long positions in the session at a disadvantage.

Source: StoneX Daily Coffee Report ngày 09/11/2026 and futures data. Prices and changes are recorded for each contract, not for spot coffee.

2. Robusta: Price rises to 3,322, then reverses, what's happening?

The most notable point of Robusta is not the 3 USD/ton decrease, but the amplitude of the movement in the session. The price once rose by 52 USD/ton from the closing price on Friday, but then lost almost all its gains.

This is a sign that the high price zone is facing supply pressure or has not yet attracted sufficient buying power to maintain the upward trend. The 3,292 USD/ton level is also a concentrated trading volume area according to the StoneX report. When the closing price is lower than this area, buyers in the session do not have a clear advantage.

However, the futures structure presents a different signal. The January 2027 contract only decreased by 3 USD/ton, while the March 2027 contract decreased by 16 USD/ton and the May 2027 contract decreased by 18 USD/ton.

Thus, the downward pressure is not evenly distributed across the entire price curve. The distant contracts bear a larger decrease than the nearby contracts. This indicates that the market is pricing differently between immediate demand and expectations of supply in the following months.

Notably, the difference between the January 2027 contract and the March 2027 contract increased to 8 USD/ton, while the StoneX report recorded an increase in the F/H spread of 2 USD/ton to 29 USD/ton. This structure shows that the nearby contract is still relatively well-supported compared to the distant contracts.

For Robusta, this is a detail to follow in the coming sessions. If the nearby contract maintains its price while the distant contracts weaken, the market may be reflecting the difference between immediate supply and future supply expectations, rather than a uniform downward trend.

3. Arabica: Pressure to sell concentrated in the December contract

Arabica has a weaker signal than Robusta. The December 2026 contract decreased by 6.40 cents/lb, while the March 2027 contract decreased by 4.40 cents/lb. The difference between the two contracts thus narrowed from around 8.35 cents/lb to 6.35 cents/lb.

StoneX recorded a decrease of 8,018 futures contracts in open interest in the data for the previous Saturday, down to 45,471 contracts; while the March contract increased by 2,946 contracts. The trading volume of the March contract in the session of 09/11 was also higher than the December contract.

These data are consistent with the activity of transferring open interest from the nearby December contract to the March contract, during the period when index funds adjust their portfolios. Therefore, it should not be interpreted that the entire decrease in Arabica is a new wave of money betting on the downward trend.

However, the activity of transferring contracts does not eliminate the actual selling pressure. The December contract still ended near the low of the day, indicating that buying power has not yet been sufficient to reverse the session's trend.

The market still needs to follow the Arabica December option contract expiring on 12/11, as well as the open interest and trading volume in the coming sessions. These factors can cause short-term volatility to increase.

4. Central Highlands Coffee Price: Domestic Increase Does Not Fully Reflect Market Fluctuations

2. The buying price of Robusta coffee at the Central Highlands on November 10 was recorded in the range of 84,500–85,300 VND/kg. A summary table updated at 02:38 recorded an average price of 84,950 VND/kg, up around 525 VND/kg from the previous session.

18. Source: consolidated buying price table updated on November 10. Actual prices may vary depending on quality, moisture, impurities, weight, and point of sale.

19. Note that the sources updated on the same day are not entirely consistent. Some tables record an average price of 84,950 VND/kg, while another source records 85,100 VND/kg and states that the price has not changed from the previous day. The difference may arise from the time of update and the way regional prices are compiled. Therefore, do not consider a single average number as the official trading price for the entire Central Highlands.

20. The noteworthy point is that domestic prices are still maintaining a higher range than the low benchmark recorded at the beginning of November. Actual supply, harvesting progress, and business demand may cause domestic prices to react slowly or in a different direction in the short term compared to futures contracts.

21. 5. Vietnam Harvest: Increased Supply Does Not Automatically Mean Increased Sales

22. Vietnam's coffee harvest is entering a critical phase. According to information from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam's coffee exports in the first nine months of 2026 reached $6.54 billion. The article on October 26 also mentioned that the main harvest is expected to focus on late October and early November, amidst hot and dry weather in some areas.

23. This factor needs to be considered in the context of supply and demand. When more coffee cherries are harvested, the potential for increased supply increases. However, the actual quantity appearing on the market still depends on the speed of drying, processing, farmers' cash needs, and the decision to sell.

24. If farmers need cash to pay for harvesting costs, the quantity offered for sale may increase quickly. Conversely, if farmers hold onto their coffee and do not accept the current price, the traded supply may be lower than the actual harvesting volume.

25. Therefore, the market should monitor the coffee brought to wholesalers and export companies, rather than relying solely on seasonal information. A large harvest does not automatically mean an immediate price drop.

Three key signals to watch in the coming sessions

Firstly: Will Robusta hold onto the 3,260–3,270 USD/tonne range? This is the area where the price closed in the previous session. If the January 2027 contract holds onto this range and sees a return of buying interest, the downtrend may be just a correction after failing to hold onto the initial gain. If the price breaks through the 3,263 USD/tonne support and continues to close lower, the risk of a short-term decline will increase.

Secondly: Will Arabica continue to weaken in the December contract? We need to monitor the shift in position from December to March and the changes in open interest. If the December contract continues to decline while showing new selling interest in terms of volume and open interest, market pressure will be more noteworthy than a one-off decline due to the rollover.

Thirdly: The actual quantity at Tây Nguyên. If the futures price declines but the domestic buying price remains stable, we need to check if businesses are absorbing the supply or farmers are limiting sales. These are two completely different scenarios and will lead to different market assessments.

Market analysis

The 09/11 session did not produce a clear signal for a reversal in Robusta. The nearby contract declined slightly, but the larger decline in the distant contract indicates a market structure that is becoming increasingly polarized. Arabica is weaker, but the activity of shifting positions from December to March is also a factor to consider when looking at the decline.

For Vietnam, the 84,500–85,300 VND/kg range still shows a relatively strong resilience of the domestic market. However, as the harvest season reaches its peak, the ability to maintain prices will depend on the actual quantity sold and the purchasing power of export businesses.

What needs to be observed in this week is not just whether Robusta will rebound or not. More importantly, whether the nearby contract can hold onto a better price than the distant contract, whether Arabica will stabilize after the correction, and whether the domestic market can absorb the new supply. These three factors will help distinguish a technical correction from a real change in supply and demand.

Source:

• StoneX – Daily Coffee Report 09/11/2026: price movement, VWAP, volume, open interest, and the structure of the spread between contracts.
• ICE Futures Europe – Robusta Coffee Futures: data on the Robusta contract.
• Investing.com – Coffee C Futures: data on the Arabica contract for 09/11.
• Dân tộc và Phát triển – Bảng giá cà phê: updated domestic buying prices as of 10/11.
• Vietnam News – Coffee harvest season begins as selling prices face uncertainty: the context of the harvest season and Vietnam's exports.

SAVINA Coffee Knowledge – Market analysis and the coffee value chain.