Coffee market analysis on 11/10/2026: Robusta recovers, price forecast for the new week
Coffee market on 11/10/2026 saw divergent movements between the two main coffee types on international futures markets. London Robusta recovered by 1.37%, while New York Arabica continued its downward correction. In Vietnam, unhulled Central Highlands coffee prices were recorded in the range of 92,200–93,000 VND/kg.
The recovery in Robusta is providing support signals for the domestic market after a series of previous corrective sessions. However, price movements indicate that the market still needs further confirmation signals before it can be affirmed that the upward trend has returned.
1. Coffee market overview on 11/10/2026
| Market | Reference price | Movement |
|---|---|---|
| London Robusta Nov 2026 | 3,470 USD/ton | +47 USD/ton (+1.37%) |
| New York Arabica Dec 2026 | 286.95 cents/lb | -2.10 cents/lb (-0.73%) |
| Brazil Arabica Dec 2026 | Approx. 350 USD/60 kg bag | Down approx. 1.10% |
| Dak Lak | 93,000 VND/kg | Recovery |
| Gia Lai | 93,000 VND/kg | Recovery |
| Dak Nong | 93,000 VND/kg | Recovery |
| Lam Dong | 92,200 VND/kg | Recovery |
Notably, Robusta prices rose while Arabica prices fell. This trend indicates uneven buying interest across segments, rather than a consensus price increase across the global coffee market.
2. London Robusta Analysis: Recovery after a series of declines
The November 2026 Robusta contract closed at 3,470 USD/tonne in the 09/10 session, up 47 USD/tonne from the previous session. However, the price remains significantly lower than the 3,590 USD/tonne closing level on 06/10.
| Trading date | Closing price | Session change |
|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2026 | 3,528 USD/tonne | Increase |
| 06/10/2026 | 3,590 USD/tonne | +1,76% |
| 07/10/2026 | 3,485 USD/tonne | -2,92% |
| 08/10/2026 | 3,423 USD/tonne | -1,78% |
| 09/10/2026 | 3,470 USD/tonne | +1,37% |
London Robusta Trend Chart
November 2026 contract · Unit: USD/tonne
Robusta fell from 3,590 to 3,423 USD/tonne over the two sessions on 07–08/10, equivalent to approximately 4.65%. The gain on 09/10 only partially offset the previous decline.
Technically, this is a short-term recovery signal. To confirm a renewed uptrend, the market needs to break through nearby resistance levels and sustain higher price levels.
Key technical price levels
| Price level | Significance |
|---|---|
| 3,350–3,380 USD/tonne | Further support if selling pressure returns |
| 3,400–3,425 USD/tonne | Nearby support zone to monitor |
| 3,495–3,530 USD/tonne | Nearby resistance; needs to be broken to consolidate the recovery momentum |
| 3,590–3,600 USD/tonne | Stronger resistance, corresponding to the recent peak |
If Robusta breaks above 3,530 USD/tonne and holds this level, the market could target the 3,590–3,600 USD/tonne zone. Conversely, if prices fall below 3,400 USD/tonne, the risk of retesting the 3,350–3,380 USD/tonne support zone will increase.
3. New York Arabica: Correction pressure has not ended
The December 2026 Arabica contract on ICE Futures US closed at 286.95 cents/lb in the 09/10 session, down 2.10 cents/lb, or 0.73%.
| Trading date | Closing price |
|---|---|
| 05/10/2026 | 292.55 cents/lb |
| 06/10/2026 | 304.45 cents/lb |
| 07/10/2026 | 292.70 cents/lb |
| 08/10/2026 | 289.05 cents/lb |
| 09/10/2026 | 286.95 cents/lb |
New York Arabica trend chart
December 2026 contract · Unit: cents/lb
From 304.45 cents/lb on 06/10 to 286.95 cents/lb on 09/10, Arabica fell by approximately 5.75%. This indicates that selling pressure dominated after the strong rally early in the week.
The 284–286 cents/lb zone is a nearby support area to monitor. If prices hold this zone and recover above 290–293 cents/lb, downward pressure may ease. If support is broken, the risk of a deeper decline will increase.
4. Central Highlands coffee prices recover
Unprocessed green bean prices in key Central Highlands provinces were recorded in the range of 92,200–93,000 VND/kg, up by about 1,000–1,200 VND/kg compared to previous sessions, according to reference data.
| Locality | Reference price |
|---|---|
| Dak Lak | 93,000 VND/kg |
| Gia Lai | 93,000 VND/kg |
| Dak Nong | 93,000 VND/kg |
| Lam Dong | 92,200 VND/kg |
Prices rebounded, reflecting improved market sentiment following a correction phase. However, domestic purchase prices depend not only on London Robusta but are also influenced by the USD/VND exchange rate, export costs, bean quality, quality discounts, and harvest progress.
As new-crop supply increases, selling volume may exert downward pressure on prices. Conversely, if farmers hold back stock and companies need raw materials for delivery, buying interest may support the market.
5. Coffee price forecast for October 12–16, 2026
The price ranges below are analytical scenarios based on currently available reference data, not guaranteed future prices.
Scenario 1: Continued Robusta recovery
Condition: Robusta breaks above the $3,495–$3,530/tonne range and sustains upward momentum.
Reference domestic price range: 93,500–94,500 VND/kg.
If buying pressure is maintained, Central Highlands coffee prices may test higher levels. Closing prices and actual transactions should be monitored for confirmation.
Scenario 2: Sideways consolidation
Condition: Robusta fluctuates within the $3,400–$3,530/tonne range.
Reference domestic price range: 92,000–94,000 VND/kg.
The market may see a tug-of-war between demand for raw materials and selling pressure as the new harvest accelerates.
Scenario 3: Price correction
Condition: Robusta falls below $3,400/tonne while domestic supply increases.
Reference domestic price range: 91,000–92,000 VND/kg.
If selling pressure intensifies and support levels fail to hold, the market may retreat to lower ranges. This is a risk scenario, not a certain forecast.
6. Reference strategies for farmers and businesses
For smallholder farmers
Balance cash flow needs, production costs, and price outlook before deciding to sell. Staggering sales across multiple batches can help reduce the risk of relying on a single trading window.
For dealers and export companies
Monitor futures prices, exchange rates, export offer prices, quality discounts, and delivery demand simultaneously. If domestic prices rise faster than export prices, procurement profit margins may narrow.
For futures traders
Do not interpret a single session’s gain as a definitive reversal signal. Two key levels to watch are the resistance zone at 3,495–3,530 USD/tonne and the support level at 3,400 USD/tonne for London Robusta.
7. Market outlook and prospects for the coming week
The coffee market on October 11, 2026, shows London Robusta recovering, while New York Arabica remains under corrective pressure. Central Highlands coffee prices returning to the 92,200–93,000 VND/kg range is a positive signal, but insufficient to confirm a new bullish cycle.
In the week of October 12–16, 2026, the 93,000–94,000 VND/kg range will be a key area of focus for the domestic market. If Robusta breaks above 3,530 USD/tonne, the prospect of testing higher price levels will improve. Conversely, if London prices weaken below 3,400 USD/tonne, corrective pressure may return.
Post-holiday closing price movements, along with the pace at which the new crop enters the market, will be two critical factors in assessing the true strength of this recovery.
Price data and forecasted ranges should be cross-referenced with official exchange prices and buyer offers at the time of use.