Global coffee market overview for 22/09/2026
The trading session on 22/09/2026 witnessed widespread "limit-down" waves from international futures markets to domestic purchasing markets. This sharp downward trend pushed international coffee prices to their lowest level in three months. This reversal ended the previous period of high plateauing, reflecting a major shift in global supply-demand balance and investor sentiment.
Volatility on international exchanges
The decline was most pronounced on major futures exchanges in London, New York, and Brazil. Selling pressure from investment funds increased as concerns about supply gradually eased.
- London Robusta (ICE London): The price of Robusta coffee futures for delivery on 24/09/26 fell 1.74% to 3,287 USD/tonne. This is a significant drop for the high-caffeine coffee variety, which has been under continuous supply tightness pressure in recent times.
- New York Arabica (ICE US): The New York exchange recorded slight green gains but not enough to offset the general trend. Specifically, Arabica futures for delivery on 18/12/26 reached 277.05 US cents/lb, up slightly by 0.33% compared to the previous session.
- Brazil Arabica (BMF BOVESPA): On the Brazilian exchange, Arabica futures for delivery on 18/12/26 fell 0.93%, closing at 333.5 USD per 60 kg bag, directly reflecting improved export performance and favorable weather conditions in this South American country.
Domestic coffee market: Sharp downward trend ahead of the new harvest
Following the global sharp decline, bulk green coffee prices in key provinces of the Central Highlands dropped sharply by 800 VND/kg compared to the previous trading session. Current purchasing prices range from 92,200 to 93,000 VND/kg.
In addition to being indirectly affected by the decline on the London exchange, the domestic market faces significant psychological pressure as Vietnam prepares to enter the new 2026/2027 crop year starting in October. Although the new crop's production is forecast to decrease slightly to around 31 million bags compared to 32.5 million bags in the previous crop year, the anticipation of new supply continues to weigh heavily on current domestic purchasing prices.
Analysis of factors affecting supply
Global surplus forecast from the ICO
According to the latest report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee production in the 2025/2026 crop year is expected to reach a record 183.6 million bags, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year. Conversely, global consumption demand is projected to decrease slightly by 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. This mismatch leads to a surplus of approximately 3 million bags on the global market for the first time after five consecutive years of deficit, creating strong downward pressure on both derivatives exchanges.
Record exports from Brazil and improved weather
Actual supply from major exporting countries also recorded very positive figures:
- Record exports: The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafé) reported that coffee export volume in August 2026 reached a record high of 4.16 million bags, completely alleviating previous concerns about logistics bottlenecks.
- Favorable weather: Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil's main growing regions recently received extremely favorable heavy rains during the critical flowering stage. The average rainfall measured reached 33.4 mm, equivalent to 242% of the historical average, maximizing yield potential for the upcoming 2026/2027 crop.