Global futures market movements
In the last trading session before the holiday, global derivatives markets turned positive across the board, driven by short-covering and supportive technical factors.
ICE Futures Europe recorded November 2026 Robusta futures closing at USD 3,367 per tonne, up 2.34% (equivalent to a rise of USD 77 per tonne). This signals a positive technical recovery after a series of days under strong selling pressure due to abundant supply from major producing countries.
At ICE Futures US, December 2026 New York Arabica futures also rose slightly by 1.18% (up 3.25 US cents), settling at 278.60 US cents/lb. In line with New York, Arabica traded on Brazil's BMFBOVESPA exchange for December 2026 closed the trading week at USD 338.60 per 60-kg bag, up slightly by 0.85%.
Technical analysis and price drivers
Price trends during this period are subject to intense tug-of-war between physical supply-demand factors and the repositioning of capital flows by financial speculative funds.
- Improved supply factors: According to records from major market analysis organizations such as StoneX and Barchart, global supply is showing signs of positive improvement thanks to a large crop from Brazil and an increasing trend in certified stocks on exchanges. This is the main factor restraining the medium-term price breakout.
- Technical recovery at week's end: Short-covering by speculators after a streak of net selling helped derivatives markets regain positive momentum before entering the holiday.
- Weather factors: Global traders are currently focusing on weather conditions in Brazil's key growing regions. The flowering stage of coffee trees here is extremely sensitive to rainfall; any adverse weather developments could trigger a new price surge due to yield risk concerns.
Domestic coffee market remains stable
In contrast to the continuous fluctuations on international financial exchanges, green bean coffee prices in key Central Highlands provinces on 28/09/2026 remained absolutely flat due to the weekend trading holiday.
Purchase prices in localities ranged from VND 93,000 to VND 93,800 per kg, with the regional average reaching approximately VND 93,700 per kg. This price level is considered an extremely solid support zone given that Vietnam's old-crop supply is nearly exhausted, while the new crop will not begin its peak harvest until the end of the year.
Coffee economics perspective
The divergence between futures prices and domestic spot prices clearly reflects local supply and demand dynamics. Although international exchanges face slight downward pressure from Brazilian supply, Vietnamese exporters must maintain high purchase prices to accumulate sufficient minimum volumes for signed contracts. The differential is fluctuating flexibly to adapt to rising international logistics costs and the actual shortage of goods domestically.