Coffee market analysis on 31/10/2026: Robusta recovers, but the October downtrend remains unbroken

The coffee market closed the trading session on 30/10 with signs of recovery in both London Robusta and New York Arabica. The November 2026 Robusta futures rose by 42 USD/tonne, while the December 2026 New York Arabica increased by 1.70 cents/pound.

However, placing this recovery within the broader context of October reveals a different picture: Robusta prices remain significantly lower than at the start of the month and are still far from the peak recorded in the first week.

In the domestic market, bulk green coffee prices in the Central Highlands continued to drop by approximately 1,000 VND/kg on 30/10. The divergence between futures prices and physical cash prices is a key factor to monitor as we enter November.

1. Robusta and Arabica prices in the 30/10 session

Data source: Notícias Agrícolas for the London forward curve and price table as of 30/10; Investing.com – Coffee C historical data for the New York Arabica contract.

Robusta rebounded after falling to 3,177 USD/tonne in the 29/10 session. The 42 USD increase indicates buying interest emerged at lower price levels, but it is insufficient to confirm that capital flows have returned in line with the medium-term uptrend.

2. The Robusta rebound should be viewed within the October trend

Historical data for the London Robusta contract shows the price on 01/10 was 3,448 USD/tonne. By 06/10, the price reached 3,590 USD/tonne, then declined to 3,177 USD/tonne on 29/10 before recovering to 3,219 USD/tonne on 30/10.

From 01/10 to 30/10, Robusta fell by 229 USD/tonne, equivalent to approximately 6.64%. Compared with the 3,590 USD/tonne level on 06/10, the month-end price was 371 USD/tonne lower, equivalent to approximately 10.33%.

Thus, the gain in the 30/10 session only offset a small portion of the prior decline. The price structure for the month remains biased toward correction.

Investors need to distinguish a technical recovery session from a trend change. To confirm a reversal, the market needs to sustain higher closing levels over multiple sessions, accompanied by improved liquidity and response from the physical market.

3. Robusta forward curve: near-term contracts remain at a premium

The 30/10 session showed November 2026 Robusta prices at USD 3,219/tonne, higher than January 2027 at USD 3,204/tonne, March 2027 at USD 3,193/tonne, and May 2027 at USD 3,187/tonne.

This structure reflects near-term contract prices being higher than those for later maturities, commonly referred to as backwardation.

The spread between the November 2026 and May 2027 contracts is USD 32/tonne. This is a forward spread, not the price differential between two types of physical coffee.

Backwardation may reflect higher value for near-term delivery compared to expectations for distant delivery, but it should not be interpreted in isolation as definitive evidence of a market shortage. Additional factors such as inventory levels, liquidity, delivery quality, and actual demand must be considered.

4. Important note: the November Robusta contract has entered the delivery period

According to the official contract schedule of ICE Futures Europe, the November 2026 Robusta contract has a First Notice Date of 27/10/2026, a First Delivery Date of 02/11/2026, and a Last Trading Day of 24/11/2026.

This means that as of 31/10, the November contract has passed the First Notice Date and is approaching the actual physical delivery phase.

In the period close to delivery, activities such as rolling positions to later maturities, delivery demand, and the liquidity of the near-month contract can influence price volatility. Therefore, when assessing Robusta trends, one should not only observe the November contract but also compare it with January 2027 and March 2027.

Contract schedule source: ICE Futures Europe – Robusta Coffee Futures Expiry Details.

5. Domestic coffee prices: Central Highlands still under adjustment pressure

According to the green bean price list from nmquan.vn on 30/10/2026, the average price across the four Central Highlands provinces was approximately VND 87,300/kg, a decrease of VND 1,000/kg compared to the previous quotation period.

Source: nmquan.vn – Provincial green coffee bean price data, quoted on October 30, 2026.

Notably, prices in Đắk Lắk fell from 94,600 VND/kg on October 1 to 87,400 VND/kg on October 30. This represents a decrease of approximately 7,200 VND/kg, or about 7.61% for the month.

Meanwhile, London futures recovered during the October 30 session. This divergence indicates that the domestic physical market did not react immediately or uniformly to fluctuations on the international exchange.

6. Why did futures prices rise while domestic purchase prices continued to fall?

Futures prices and domestic purchase prices are two related but distinct pricing layers.

Prices in the Central Highlands also depend on the actual volume offered for sale, buyer demand, coffee quality, moisture content, defect rate, transportation costs, exchange rates, and basis differentials.

As the new harvest season accelerates, expectations of increased supply may exert downward pressure on domestic prices. However, it is essential to distinguish between supply expectations and the actual volume of standard-compliant coffee purchased and brought to market.

A positive session on the exchange does not mean domestic dealers must immediately raise their purchase prices. If the volume offered increases or spot buying demand does not improve, physical prices may still decline or remain flat.

7. Three factors to monitor in early November

Harvest progress and quality of the new crop

Beyond observing harvested volumes, businesses need to monitor the ripe cherry ratio, post-processing moisture content, defect rates, and ability to meet delivery standards. An increase in supply with inconsistent quality can widen price disparities between batches.

Liquidity and position shifts across ICE contract months

The November Robusta contract is in the delivery phase. It is important to observe position rollovers to the January 2027 and March 2027 contracts to avoid misinterpreting technical volatility in the near-month contract as a broader market trend.

Disparity between exchange prices and physical prices

If futures maintain their recovery but purchase prices in the Central Highlands remain weak, the market needs to reassess offered volumes, export buying power, and basis levels by region. If both futures and physical prices recover, the signal will have stronger confirmation.

8. SAVINA’s market perspective

The October 30 session provided short-term positive signals for Robusta and Arabica, but there is insufficient basis to confirm a market reversal.

For Robusta, the level of 3,219 USD/tonne represents a recovery from late-month lows. However, compared to the beginning of the month and the high prices on October 6, the November contract remains in significant correction.

For the domestic market, the average level of around 87,300 VND/kg indicates that downward pressure persists. Farmers and dealers should balance cash flow, product quality, and storage capacity rather than making decisions based solely on a single positive exchange session.

For roasting and exporting businesses, the seasonal transition period requires strict control over cost of goods sold, delivery schedules, and batch quality. Staggered purchasing aligned with actual delivery needs can help reduce risk compared to committing entire volumes based on a single price forecast.

October 31 Assessment: The recovery on October 30 is a signal to monitor, not a confirmation of a reversal. In the short term, the market still needs greater alignment between futures prices, domestic purchase prices, and actual physical volumes before a more certain assessment of the November trend can be made.

Price data is cross-referenced with the sources and publication times stated in the article. Reference prices may vary among suppliers due to update timing, contract terms, and aggregation methods. The analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.