Coffee market analysis on October 28, 2026: Domestic prices fall, Arabica adjusts more than Robusta
Notable market developments on October 28, 2026 include a decline in Robusta prices at purchasing areas in the Central Highlands, while the London Robusta contract for January 2027 edged up. On the New York market, December 2026 Arabica futures fell significantly.
Author photo: Luba Glazunova
This divergence suggests that market price movements cannot be explained solely by futures contract fluctuations. Prices in Vietnam are also influenced by factors such as harvest progress, shipment quality, spot demand, exchange rates, and specific trading conditions.
Coffee price movements on October 28, 2026
According to the updated price table at 06:37 on October 28, 2026 from Báo Lâm Đồng, the reference prices recorded are as follows:
| Market / region | Price | Price change |
|---|---|---|
| Đắk Lắk | 88,800 VND/kg | Down 700 VND/kg |
| Gia Lai | 88,800 VND/kg | Down 700 VND/kg |
| Lâm Đồng | 88,300 VND/kg | Down 700 VND/kg |
| Đắk Nông (old province area) | 89,000 VND/kg | Down 500 VND/kg |
| Robusta London, contract for January 2027 | 3,220 USD/ton | Up 19 USD/tonne, equivalent to 0.59% |
| New York Arabica, December 2026 contract | 293.75 cents/pound | Down 7.20 cents/pound, equivalent to 2.39% |
The average price across the four sourcing regions recorded by this source was 88,725 VND/kg, a decrease of approximately 650 VND/kg compared to the previous session’s reference level. This is an average of regions with available data, not a quoted price applicable to all dealers or all grades of bulk green coffee.
The London and New York prices in the table are futures contract prices with different delivery months. They are not farm-gate prices for green coffee and cannot be directly converted into domestic trading prices without accounting for exchange rates, grade differentials, basis, and commercial costs.
Why can domestic prices fall when London Robusta rises?
Futures prices and physical prices are closely linked but do not always move in the same direction within a single trading session.
Futures contracts reflect exchange-traded transactions with specified delivery times and contract terms. In contrast, purchase prices in the Central Highlands reflect the actual green coffee market in each region, where buyers must balance inventory levels, delivery schedules, quality, export demand, and supply mobilization capacity.
During the transition to the new harvest season, the volume of offered goods may change according to picking, drying, and market release progress. However, a single session’s price decline is insufficient to attribute today’s drop entirely to new-crop supply, nor does it justify concluding that export buying power has weakened.
For businesses, the key metric to monitor is the spread between physical and futures prices, typically analyzed through the basis. If exchange prices rise while local purchase prices still fall, one should simultaneously assess offered volumes, the prices buyers actually accept, and delivery terms, rather than relying solely on London price quotes.
Global supply remains a pressure variable
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) September 2026 report recorded the average September I-CIP composite indicator at 262.18 cents/pound, down 8.7% from August. All four ICO coffee group indicators declined; the Robusta group fell 7.3%, while the Arabica groups decreased by 8.1% to 9.9%.
The ICO reported that global exports of green coffee in August 2026 reached 10.94 million 60-kg bags, up 15.6% year-on-year. Robusta alone increased 22.4% to 4.36 million bags. Vietnam’s coffee exports in all forms rose 48% that month to 2.24 million bags, according to ICO statistics.
These figures indicate a sharp increase in export flows during the reported period, adding further pressure on market sentiment. However, rising exports do not necessarily mean the entire market is certainly oversupplied at all times: exported volumes, exchange-deliverable inventory, and available stock by grade are distinct metrics.
Brazil and the 2026/27 crop outlook
According to estimates released on 24/09/2026 by Brazil’s national supply agency (Conab), Brazil’s 2026 coffee production is projected at 67.6 million bags, up 19.6% from 2025 and a record high in the agency’s statistical series. Of this, Arabica is estimated at 48.2 million bags, while Conilon reaches 19.4 million bags.
The prospect of larger output, particularly in Arabica, is a factor exerting downward pressure on futures prices. However, seasonal production figures do not precisely indicate the volume that will reach the market each week. Export progress, bean quality, inventory levels, and contract-covering demand can still cause significant short-term price volatility.
Regarding Vietnam, a Reuters report published on 19/10/2026 stated that industry representatives expect the 2026/27 crop year production to remain generally stable compared to the previous season, while the USDA’s May forecast was more optimistic at 32.5 million 60-kg bags. These are estimates with different scopes and publication dates and should not be treated as confirmed production figures.
El Niño risks for the 2027/28 crop are also drawing attention from producers. However, at present, there is insufficient basis to accurately quantify the impact on Vietnam’s output. Weather factors may add a risk premium to futures prices, but they should not be used as evidence that prices will immediately reverse upward.
Three factors to monitor in the coming weeks
- Harvest progress and new-crop quality: monitor the actual volume brought to market, drying conditions, and quality differences across regions.
- Export flows and inventory: track new export data from Vietnam and Brazil, as well as exchange-deliverable inventory statistics. An increase in deliverable supply may pressure futures prices, but this requires confirmation through updated data.
- Domestic price differentials, exchange rates, and futures contracts: compare purchase prices with the appropriate futures contract, VND/USD exchange rates, delivery terms, and the prices buyers actually accept. Do not use standalone exchange prices to decide physical buying or selling prices.
Risk management perspective
In the short term, the market still has a basis for strong fluctuations in line with the progress of supply and seasonal information. Data as of October 28 shows that downward pressure is now more evident in New York Arabica prices and domestic procurement prices, while London Robusta prices have only risen slightly. A single Robusta rally is not enough to confirm a sustainable recovery trend.
For growers and traders, breaking down sales volumes according to cash flow needs and shipping schedules may help reduce the risk of deciding on the entire production volume at one time. For roasters and exporters, decisions on purchasing physical goods should be separated from decisions on hedging futures prices, and risks related to exchange rates and shipping dates should also be checked.
There is no reliable target price based on a single day's data. Market scenarios need to be updated when new closing prices, export data, harvesting progress, and confirmed weather information become available.
To compare the latest developments, you can also refer to the coffee market analysis on October 27, 2026 and cross-check with the current coffee prices before making a trading decision.