Robusta faces pressure from new crop, Arabica sees significant fluctuations: Coffee market closes week 9–14/11
Coffee Market Analysis on 14/11/2026
The coffee market closed the trading week with a clear distinction between Robusta and Arabica. Robusta London continues to face pressure from Vietnam's new crop supply, while New York Arabica saw a strong recovery and then adjusted back.
Since 14/11 is a Saturday, the analysis uses the closing futures price of the previous Friday, 13/11, and updates domestic price data as of 14/11. Do not consider the end-of-week prices as a new trading session of the exchange.
1. Domestic coffee prices continue to fall
Updated data at 12:18 on 14/11/2026 records the purchase price of coffee in key regions:
| Region | Reference Price | Fluctuation |
|---|---|---|
| Đắk Lắk | 83,000 VND/kg | -700 VND/kg |
| Lâm Đồng | 82,300 VND/kg | -900 VND/kg |
| Đắk Nông | 83,000 VND/kg | -800 VND/kg |
| Gia Lai | 82,800 VND/kg | -900 VND/kg |
Source: BCCE, updated 12:18 on 14/11/2026. Reference prices are based on the region, not the trading price of all dealers.
Notably, all four regions saw a decrease. Lâm Đồng and Gia Lai recorded a decrease of 900 VND/kg, higher than the decrease in Đắk Lắk and Đắk Nông.
The lowest price in the table is Lam Dong, at VND 82,300/kg. The difference between the highest and lowest prices is VND 700/kg.
The synchronized trend shows that pressure is not only present in a single location. During the harvest season, an increase in the volume of goods offered for sale may cause purchasing units to adjust prices to manage inventory and price risk.
2. Robusta London: Pressure easing not yet resolved
In the November 13 session, the January 2027 Robusta contract closed at $3,207/ton, down $38/ton, or 1.17%. The March 2027 contract fell by $31/ton, to $3,189/ton.
This is a notable development because pressure easing is evident across multiple contract periods. The market is reassessing the ability to supply as Vietnam enters the peak harvest period.
According to the ICO's October 2026 report, certified Robusta stocks in London increased by 29.9%, to 1.13 million bags by the end of October, the highest level since July 2025. The ICO also noted that the current Vietnam harvest is underway, and global Robusta exports rose by 15.7% in September.
These data reinforce the view that Robusta supply capacity is improving compared to the previous period of tight inventory. However, certified stocks on the exchange are only a part of the global physical supply.
3. Arabica: Strong recovery but not yet confirmed
In the November 13 session, the March 2027 Arabica contract rose to 274.55 cents/pound, up 9.90 cents, or 3.74%. The December 2026 contract reached 280.20 cents/pound, up 11.20 cents.
This is a strong recovery after the market faced selling pressure. However, updated data for the weekend shows that the March 2027 contract was recorded at around 273.50 cents/pound, lower than the 274.55 cents reference price of the previous session.
Therefore, it is not advisable to rely solely on the November 13 increase to conclude that Arabica has reversed its trend. The market still needs additional trading sessions to confirm whether the buying power is sufficiently sustainable or not.
4. ICE inventory: Two coffee lines have different statuses
The ICO's October 2026 report noted that certified Arabica inventory in the US decreased to 230,000 bags by the end of October, the lowest level since January 2002.
In contrast, certified Robusta inventory in London increased to 1.13 million bags, the highest level since July 2025.
This is a significant difference between the two markets. Arabica still has relatively low certified inventory, while Robusta has shown signs of improving supply within the exchange system.
However, ICE inventory does not represent the total global coffee supply. It reflects the volume of goods meeting exchange delivery standards at the time of the survey. Therefore, it is necessary to combine this data with exports, production, and inventory levels in producing countries.
5. Brazil and Vietnam: Two sources to monitor
Brazil is a crucial factor in the global supply outlook. The USDA forecasts a total coffee production of 71.9 million bags for the 2026/27 crop year, up 8.9 million bags. Arabica production is expected to increase to 47.5 million bags, while Robusta/Conilon is forecast to decrease to 24.4 million bags.
Thus, Brazil's production increase is mainly due to Arabica. It is not possible to conclude that Robusta supply from Brazil also increased based on this record-breaking total production forecast.
In Vietnam, short-term pressure comes from the progress of the harvest and the volume of new goods entering the market. The USDA forecasts Vietnam's coffee production for the 2026/27 crop year at 32.5 million bags, up 800,000 bags from the previous crop year. This is a crop-year forecast, not the volume of coffee currently being sold.
6. Market outlook for the coming week
Robusta
Short-term risks still lean towards a decrease if new crop volumes in Vietnam continue to increase and London inventory maintains its upward trend. The likelihood of a recovery will depend on actual demand, export speed, and farmers' willingness to sell.
Arabica
Arabica may continue to experience significant fluctuations. Low certified inventory is a supporting factor, but the prospect of Brazil's production recovery and the coffee waiting to be classified at ICE inventory may limit the upward trend.
Domestic coffee prices
The domestic market will continue to be sensitive to new supplies and purchasing demand from businesses. If farmers collectively sell their produce while export demand does not increase correspondingly, prices may continue to face pressure. Conversely, farmers holding onto their produce may slow down the rate of decline, but not enough to establish an upward trend.
Weekend review
The week closed with an inconsistent picture. Robusta faced pressure from new supplies and improved London stocks. Arabica was supported by low certified stocks but still faced expectations of a recovery in Brazilian production.
For Vietnam, the simultaneous decline in domestic prices across key regions indicates the presence of seasonal pressure. However, it is essential to continue distinguishing between the expected volume of the entire crop season and the actual coffee volume released to the market each week.
In the short term, the factors to monitor are not only the futures price but also the harvesting speed, the volume of coffee offered for sale, ICE stocks, and actual shipping demand. These variables have the potential to determine whether the current downtrend will persist or the market can form a new equilibrium.
Data sources and references
- BCCE, domestic and international coffee prices, updated on 13–14/11/2026.
- International Coffee Organization, Coffee Market Report – October 2026.
- USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Coffee: World Markets and Trade, July 2026.
- Woodpeckers Coffee, Global Coffee Roundup: 4–10 November 2026