Global market overview: Technical reversal driven by a weaker DXY
After several days of intense selling pressure, the global coffee market recorded a broad technical recovery on both the London and New York exchanges during the trading session on 18/09 (updated morning of 19/09 Vietnam time).
The weakening of the US Dollar Index (DXY) after retreating from its 7-week high triggered short covering by large speculative funds, helping push futures prices back up:
- Robusta (London Exchange - ICEEUR:RC1!): The November 2026 delivery contract closed at 3,396 USD/tonne, up slightly by 0.15% (equivalent to an increase of approximately +5 USD/tonne).
- Arabica (New York Exchange - ICEUS:KC1!): The September 2026 delivery contract saw a stronger gain of 1.45% (up approximately +4 US cents/lb), reaching 280.5 US cents/lb.
- Brazilian Arabica (BMFBOVESPA Exchange: ICF1!): Contrary to the New York exchange, Brazilian Arabica prices for the September 2026 delivery contract recorded a slight decline of 0.21%, trading at 337.5 USD per 60 kg bag.
This recovery is more short-term and technical in nature rather than a shift in long-term supply-demand structures, which are moving in a direction unfavorable to price gains.
Domestic coffee price movements: Slight decline ahead of the harvest season
In contrast to the slight recovery on global exchanges, green bean prices in the domestic Vietnamese market on 19/09 continued their slight downward trend, falling by 500–600 VND/kg compared to the previous trading session. This divergence reflects the cautious sentiment of farmers and traders as they prepare for the new harvest.
Currently, domestic coffee purchase prices are hovering around 93,000–93,800 VND/kg. Actual market trading has been relatively quiet as household reserves are nearly depleted.
Detailed coffee prices in key growing regions on 19/09/2026:
- Dak Nong: Recorded the highest purchase price nationwide at 93,800 VND/kg, down 600 VND/kg (-0.64%) from yesterday's level of 94,400 VND/kg.
- Dak Lak & Gia Lai: Both dropped by 600 VND/kg (-0.64%), currently standing at 93,600 VND/kg.
- Quang Ngai: Purchased at 93,500 VND/kg, down 600 VND/kg (-0.64%).
- Lam Dong: Recorded the lowest price at 93,000 VND/kg, down 500 VND/kg (-0.53%).
Supply-demand analysis and macroeconomic factors impacting the market
Although global prices saw a technical recovery, fundamental data indicates that the market faces significant surplus pressure in the near term.
1. Global surplus forecast from the ICO
The latest report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) shows that the global coffee market risks entering a surplus state for the first time after five consecutive years of deficits. Specifically, the ICO forecasts global coffee production for the 2025/26 crop year will increase by 4.4% compared to the previous year, reaching a record 183.6 million bags (60 kg type). Meanwhile, global consumption demand is projected to decrease slightly by 0.9% to 180.6 million bags, creating a surplus of approximately 3 million bags in the market.
2. Record export volume from Brazil
According to Cepea data citing the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil is accelerating exports with the goal of achieving a new historical record in the 2026-2027 crop year. The South American nation is expected to export up to 49.1 million bags of coffee, a sharp 27.5% increase from the 38.5 million bags of the previous crop year. In August alone, Brazil's exports reached a historical monthly record of 4.155 million bags (up 31% year-on-year).
3. Favorable rainfall in major growing regions
In addition to export pressure, weather conditions in Brazil are strongly supporting future supply. Meteorological units Climatempo and Somar Meteorologia reported that the main coffee-growing region in Minas Gerais state (Brazil) recorded rainfall of up to 59.4 mm last week, equivalent to 1,212% of the historical average. Abundant rainfall occurred during the sensitive flowering stage of coffee plants, helping optimize fruit set rates and acting as a strong bearish factor for futures prices.
In Vietnam, weather in the Central Highlands is becoming less rainy and turning sunny and warm, creating favorable conditions for farmers to prepare drying and harvesting activities for the new crop year.
4. ICE warehouse stocks surge
Continuously replenished available stocks are also a factor restraining the coffee price recovery:
- Certified Arabica stocks on the ICE exchange increased by 10,528 bags, bringing the total to 258,415 bags – the highest level in the past 1.5 months.
- Robusta stocks also climbed to their highest level in 9.5 months, with 5,043 trading lots.
Trend forecast and recommendations
Overall, the technical rebound of London Robusta and New York Arabica during the September 18 session is unlikely to last long amid pressure from Brazil's strong export flow and Vietnam's upcoming harvest. A downward or sideways consolidation trend is more likely to dominate in the coming weeks as actual supply enters the market.
Domestic exporting companies and producing households should closely monitor the harvest progress in the Central Highlands as well as USD/VND exchange rate fluctuations to implement appropriate price hedging strategies and forward contract closures.