The coffee trading market on October 17, 2026, saw green returns across most key indices. Notably, Arabica contracts on the New York exchange recorded a strong breakout, acting as the locomotive pulling the entire market higher. Domestically, the rise on the London exchange was directly reflected in the purchasing prices for green coffee beans in key Central Highlands regions.
Global coffee price movements: New York Arabica breaks out strongly
On the New York exchange (ICE Futures US), the December 2026 Arabica contract (KCZ2026) closed at 305.6 US cents/lb, up 3.65% from the previous session. This surge stemmed from investor concerns over certified stocks hitting historic lows, combined with unfavorable weather forecasts due to El Niño in key South American growing regions.
Conversely, the Brazilian Arabica contract (BMFBOVESPA: ICFZ2026) for December 2026 saw a slight adjustment, dropping 0.24% to USD 375.05 per 60-kg bag.
For Robusta coffee on the London exchange (ICE Futures Europe), the November 2026 contract (RCX2026) resumed its recovery, rising 1.16% to close at USD 3,414/tonne. The tightening of standardized Robusta stocks on the ICE exchange provided a foundation for futures prices to return to positive territory.
Domestic coffee market: Uniform recovery in Central Highlands provinces
Following the recovery on the London exchange, prices for ungraded green coffee in the Central Highlands region on October 17, 2026, rose uniformly by VND 1,000/kg compared to the previous day. Current purchasing prices range between VND 92,100 and VND 93,000/kg.
- Dak Nong: Continues to lead the region with a purchasing price of VND 93,000/kg (up 1.09%).
- Dak Lak: Recorded a trading price of VND 92,800/kg (up 1.09%).
- Gia Lai: Prices reached VND 92,800/kg, equivalent to a 1.09% increase.
- Lam Dong: Reached VND 92,100/kg, up 1.10% from the previous session.
The consensus in price increases in the domestic market indicates that short-term demand remains strong, despite selling pressure from the approaching new crop.
Impact factors: Concerns over critically low exchange stocks and new crop season pressure
Market movements on October 17, 2026, were driven by the combined influence of two opposing forces:
On one hand, certified stock levels on both international exchanges (ICE New York and London) remained at very low levels, triggering financial capital to return for cover buying. Additionally, weather forecast models warned of El Niño risks damaging yields for the upcoming Arabica crop year.
On the other hand, actual supply pressure began to emerge as Vietnam entered the early stage of the new coffee harvest season. Although scattered picking has not yet generated abundant immediate supply, the expectation of cheaper supply from the Central Highlands continues to be a factor restraining Robusta's breakout momentum in the medium term.
References
- VietnamBiz - Coffee prices today, October 17: Rebound due to low stock levels
- Trading Economics - Coffee Price, Chart, Historical Data