Coffee market overview for October 19, 2026
The global coffee market on October 19, 2026, witnessed a clear divergence but leaned toward a positive trend, most notably the impressive upward momentum of Arabica on the New York exchange. The core driver behind Arabica's rise was not short-term weather factors but a severe decline in inventory structure. According to analytical data from Bloomberg and market monitoring agencies, certified Arabica stocks on the exchange hit their lowest level since 1999, causing a tightening of spot supply on futures markets.
In Vietnam, the purchase price of green coffee beans bulk in the Central Highlands provinces recorded a uniform slight increase of VND 200/kg. Current prices remain anchored at historically high levels ahead of the widespread harvest of the new crop year in localities.
Developments on international exchanges
New York Arabica surges due to depleted inventory pressure
The December 2026 Arabica contract on ICE US (New York) closed at 305.6 US cents/lb, marking a 3.66% increase from the previous session. On a weekly basis, Arabica prices broke out by 3.6% to 6.5%, maintaining a dominant position in the commodity market.
Technical and fundamental factors supporting Arabica include certified stocks falling to a 27-year historical low. The decline in deliverable reserves forced short sellers to cover significant deficits, leading to strong price volatility even though long-term forecasts indicate a robust recovery in supply from Brazil for the 2026/2027 crop year.
London Robusta remains green, Brazilian Arabica adjusts slightly
On ICE EUR (London), the November 2026 Robusta coffee futures stabilized at $3,414/tonne, up slightly by 1.16% (equivalent to an increase of approximately $39/tonne). Buying interest in Robusta remained firm due to substitution demand from global roasters amid skyrocketing Arabica prices.
In contrast to the New York exchange, the December 2026 Brazilian Arabica contract (B3/BMF) recorded a slight adjustment downward of 0.24%, to $375.05 per 60-kg bag. The sideways or slight decline in Brazilian Arabica reflects investor caution ahead of news that the crop outlook in this South American country is expected to reach record production.
Domestic coffee market: Slight increase across the Central Highlands region
Bulk green coffee prices in the Central Highlands provinces on October 19, 2026, rose uniformly by VND 200/kg compared to the previous trading day, continuing to fluctuate firmly in the range of VND 92,300–93,200/kg.
Dak Nong continued to record the highest purchase prices in the region, approaching the VND 93,200/kg mark. Lam Dong maintained lower prices at the VND 92,300/kg threshold due to specific growing regions and raw material grading quality. Overall, this slight upward trend reflects farmers' tendency to hold stock as selling pressure remains low, although some early-growing areas have begun sporadic harvesting.
Macroeconomic factors and supply impacts for the 2026/2027 crop year
Global coffee supply for the 2026/2027 crop year is projected by international organizations to improve thanks to record production from Brazil and more favorable weather in South American countries. However, the short-term market remains imbalanced due to logistics barriers and depleted inventories at major consumption ports in Europe and North America.
The large gap between future supply forecasts and current spot inventory realities is the main trigger for strong market volatility. In the short term, as long as certified stocks on ICE remain unfilled, Arabica and Robusta prices are likely to maintain high levels to attract actual cargo into warehouses.