Overview of the coffee market on October 21, 2026
The global coffee market entered a correction phase on October 21, 2026, following a streak of consecutive gains. Declines were observed on the two major exchanges, ICE Futures Europe (London) and ICE Futures US (New York), reflecting cautious sentiment and short-term investors’ profit-taking activities.
In the domestic Vietnamese market, green bean prices did not follow the global downward trend but continued to remain stable at high levels. Support from demand for new-crop purchases and the actual short-term supply gap helped domestic prices hold firm.
Fluctuations on international derivatives exchanges
London Robusta: Slight decline under profit-taking pressure
On ICE Futures Europe, November 2026 Robusta futures closed at USD 3,410/tonne, down 0.78% (equivalent to a decrease of USD 26/tonne) from the previous session. This is considered a technical self-correction as the market had entered overbought territory in prior sessions.
The scattered start of the new Robusta harvest in some localities, albeit on a small scale, also helped ease tight supply sentiment on the derivatives exchange.
New York Arabica and Brazil: Divergent correction
On ICE Futures US, December 2026 Arabica futures saw a more pronounced decline, dropping 1.77% to 310.10 US cents/lb. This decrease stemmed from signals of rising certified stocks on ICE and sell-off pressure from financial funds taking profits.
Conversely, on Brazil’s B3 exchange, December 2026 Arabica futures maintained slight gains, rising 0.25% to USD 382.20/bag (60 kg). This divergence indicates that the Brazilian Real exchange rate and domestic consumption in Brazil continue to provide a certain defensive buffer for local coffee prices.
Domestic green bean market holds price levels steady
Despite uniform declines on global derivatives exchanges, green bean prices in the Central Highlands provinces on October 21, 2026, did not experience a corresponding drop. Purchase prices remained anchored in the range of VND 93,200–94,000/kg.
Specifically, in Đắk Nông, purchase prices held the highest level in the region at VND 94,000/kg. In Đắk Lắk and Gia Lai, traders purchased steadily at VND 93,800/kg. Lâm Đồng continued to have the lowest prices but maintained the threshold of VND 93,200/kg. The stability of domestic prices indicates that actual tradable supply in the market is not abundant, forcing exporters to accept high prices to secure enough volume for signed contracts.
Macroeconomic factors and supply impacts on price trends
The primary cause of the decline on international exchanges was a slight improvement in certified stock indicators. After a prolonged period of dropping to record lows, Robusta and Arabica stocks on the two ICE exchanges have recorded new lots entering certification.
Additionally, investors taking profits to safeguard gains after a period of overheated rallies created short-term selling pressure. However, analysts assess that the potential for a deep market decline is currently limited, as weather conditions in key growing regions still pose risks of crop loss, while the new harvest in Vietnam is progressing slower than expected due to unfavorable weather developments.