Global coffee market developments
The global futures market session on October 1, 2026, saw slight divergence among exchanges, but the dominant trend was positive gains from major benchmark exchanges.
On the London exchange, green coffee Robusta futures for November 2026 delivery (ticker ICEEUR:RCX2026) closed at USD 3,445/tonne, up 1.03% from the previous session. Technical buying returned to the London exchange after prior corrective sessions, combined with concerns over tightening supply, helping Robusta maintain a strong position.
On the New York exchange, Arabica futures for December 2026 delivery (ticker ICEUS:KCZ2026) reached 289.9 US cents/lb, up 0.59% from the previous session. This rise reflects speculators' sensitive reaction to adverse signals from key growing regions in South America.
Conversely, on the Brazilian exchange, domestic Arabica futures for December 2026 delivery (ticker BMFBOVESPA:ICFZ2026) recorded a slight decline of 0.59%, falling to USD 352.4/bag (60 kg). This adjustment indicates hedging selling pressure from domestic Brazilian producers amid certain fluctuations in the Real exchange rate.
Analysis of macroeconomic factors and supply
Global market attention is currently focused on weather conditions in Brazil. According to meteorological reports from Climatempo, rainfall in Minas Gerais state—Brazil's largest Arabica-growing region—has consistently remained well below the multi-year average. Prolonged drought combined with high temperatures is directly threatening the critical flowering stage of the 2026/2027 coffee crop.
Furthermore, concerns about the El Niño extreme weather phenomenon continue to drive speculative capital back into the commodities market. If water shortages do not improve soon in the coming weeks, the fruit set rate of coffee trees in Brazil will drop significantly, directly affecting global production for the upcoming crop year. This forces roasters and investors to increase stockpiling to hedge against supply chain disruption risks.
Domestic coffee market remains stable
In contrast to the upward trend in global prices, the domestic Vietnamese market recorded quiet trading today. Domestic coffee prices in key growing areas of the Central Highlands maintained absolute stability, remaining flat compared to yesterday. Purchase prices hovered steadily in the range of VND 93,000 to VND 93,800/kg.
In Dak Nong province, unhulled coffee prices were recorded at the highest level in the region at VND 93,800/kg. Following that, Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces both maintained purchase prices at VND 93,600/kg. Lam Dong continued to have the lowest prices, stable at VND 93,000/kg.
This price stagnation indicates high caution in the domestic market. Farmers and dealers are tending to hold onto inventory and observe technical developments on the London exchange rather than selling off heavily ahead of the new harvest season. This also reflects that immediate supply in the domestic market is currently limited, making it difficult for exporters to push purchase prices lower.