Domestic market overview: Stabilization after a sharp correction
On 21/09/2026, the domestic coffee market recorded sideways movement with stable prices, closing a previously volatile trading week that saw a sharp decline of 1,500–1,700 VND/kg. Purchase prices in key Central Highlands provinces currently range from 93,000 to 93,800 VND/kg (with a regional average of approximately 93,700 VND/kg), officially falling below the 94,000 VND/kg threshold.
This stagnation stems from two main pressures: abundant supply from Brazil’s harvest and highly favorable weather prospects in the Central Highlands as the region prepares to enter the new 2026/2027 harvest season.
Detailed coffee prices in key regions
- Đắk Nông: Continues to maintain the highest price in the region at 93,800 VND/kg.
- Đắk Lắk & Gia Lai: Both maintain stable prices at 93,600 VND/kg.
- Quảng Ngãi: Records transactions at 93,500 VND/kg.
- Lâm Đồng: Stands at the lowest level in the region with purchase prices reaching 93,000 VND/kg.
Global market developments: Divergence between the London and New York exchanges
The global derivatives market on the trading session of 21/09/2026 recorded contrasting movements, showing clear divergence between Robusta and Arabica varieties.
London Robusta (ICE Europe Exchange)
Robusta futures for September 2026 delivery maintained a slight upward trend, reaching 3,345 USD/ton (a modest increase of approximately 0.15%). Abundant supply from South American exporting countries, particularly Brazil, continues to be a major barrier hindering a breakthrough on the London exchange.
New York Arabica (ICE US Exchange)
In contrast to Robusta, Arabica futures for September 2026 delivery on the New York exchange recorded a positive technical recovery session with a 1.45% increase, reaching 277.65 US cents/lb. The short-term weakness of the USD Index motivated speculative funds to engage in short-covering activities, supporting Arabica prices on the exchange.
Brazil Arabica (BMF Bovespa Exchange)
In the Brazilian market, Arabica futures for September 2026 delivery recorded a slight decrease of 0.21%, trading around 337.5 USD per 60 kg bag, reflecting the sales pace and intensified export efforts by domestic Brazilian growers.
Macroeconomic factors and supply-demand balance
Favorable weather ahead of Vietnam's new crop season
Weather conditions in the Central Highlands provinces are currently turning very positive. Late summer rains are occurring according to normal climatic patterns, providing ample water to nourish uniform cherry maturation before the peak harvest, expected to start in October 2026.
Summary data shows that Vietnam's coffee production for the 2025/2026 crop year is estimated at approximately 32.5 million bags (of which Robusta accounts for 31 million bags). Forecasts for the new 2026/2027 crop year suggest total Vietnamese production may decrease slightly to around 31 million bags due to localized impacts of previous weather variations.
Global surplus forecast from the ICO
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) issued an optimistic forecast for the 2025/2026 crop year, estimating a global surplus of approximately 3 million bags, ending a previous five-year streak of consecutive deficits. Total global coffee production for this crop year is expected to set a new record at 183.6 million bags (a 4.4% growth year-on-year). Conversely, global consumption demand tends to adjust slightly downward by 0.9%, retreating to 180.6 million bags.
Sharp rise in certified stocks and exchange rate pressure
Downward pressure on medium- and long-term prices is further reinforced as certified inventories on both international exchanges have risen significantly. Certified Arabica stocks on the ICE reached a 1.5-month high of 258,415 bags. Similarly, certified Robusta inventories surged to a 9.5-month peak of 5,043 lots.
On the currency front, the USD/VND exchange rate quoted by Vietcombank on 21/09/2026 remained at a high level of 25.790 VND/USD, helping to stabilize export values for domestic trading companies amid sharp fluctuations in global prices.