Market trend overview
On 23/09/2026, the coffee market witnessed a broad decline across both major derivative exchanges, London (Robusta) and New York (Arabica), dragging down purchase prices in Vietnam’s key growing regions. This sharp correction pushed prices to their lowest levels in three months, reversing the previous period of tight supply.
Global coffee price movements
At the close of the latest trading session, most standard contracts on both the London and New York exchanges finished in the red, driven by technical selling from speculative funds.
- Robusta Coffee (London Exchange): On ICE Futures Europe, the November 2026 Robusta futures contract fell 2.31% (equivalent to a drop of USD 77/tonne), closing at USD 3,260/tonne.
- Arabica Coffee (New York Exchange): On ICE Futures US, the December 2026 Arabica futures contract closed at 272.3 US cents/lb, representing a slight decline of approximately 1.48% (about 4.1 US cents/lb) compared to the previous trading session.
- Arabica Coffee (Brazil Exchange): On Brazil’s B3 exchange, the December 2026 Arabica futures contract recorded a 1.48% decline, trading around USD 328 per 60-kg bag.
Domestic coffee price situation
Influenced by the plunge on the London exchange, raw coffee prices in the Central Highlands region of Vietnam dropped sharply by VND 800/kg on 23/09/2026 compared to the previous session. This movement pushed the average price firmly below the VND 93,000/kg threshold, down by several thousand dong per kg from the peak of over VND 95,000/kg recorded in mid-month.
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In the surveyed localities, actual purchase prices ranged from VND 92,200 to VND 93,000/kg:
- Dak Nong: Continued to maintain the highest price in the region at VND 93,000/kg.
- Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Traders purchased at VND 92,700/kg.
- Quang Ngai: Recorded a trading price of VND 92,700/kg.
- Lam Dong: Remained the locality with the lowest price, holding at VND 92,200/kg.
Macroeconomic factors and supply influences
The sharp reversal in global coffee prices during this period stemmed from fundamental changes in the global supply-demand structure:
ICO forecast shifts to surplus
According to the latest report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the global coffee market is projected to shift to a surplus of approximately 3 million bags (60-kg type) in the 2025/2026 crop year. This change ends a five-year streak of consecutive supply deficits. Specifically, global coffee production for this crop year is expected to increase by 4.4% to a record 183.6 million bags, while global consumption demand shows signs of slight weakening, decreasing by 0.9% to 180.6 million bags.
Favorable weather in key growing regions
In Brazil, concerns about prolonged drought have been significantly alleviated thanks to weather forecasts indicating above-average rainfall in major producing states such as Minas Gerais and São Paulo. Good rainfall during the sensitive flowering stage creates highly favorable conditions for the new fruit development cycle, promising a bumper harvest for this South American country.
Recovery in monitored stocks
Short-term supply pressure on the ICE exchange has also eased as certified Robusta stocks on the London exchange continue to recover, reaching their highest level in 9.75 months. This abundant inventory has triggered technical selling among financial investors.