Market trend overview
On 24/09/2026, the coffee market witnessed a short-term technical rebound following a series of sharp declines that hit a three-month low. The resurgence in both the London and New York exchanges was primarily driven by short-covering by investment funds as technical indicators entered oversold territory.
Despite the short-term gains, the medium-term market trend remains under significant pressure from forecasts of abundant global supply, rising Robusta stocks on the London exchange, and strong export reports from the world's largest supplier.
- Brazil. Additionally, ideal weather conditions in key growing regions have helped limit strong price increases for this agricultural commodity.
Global coffee price movements
London Robusta market (ICE Futures Europe)
London Robusta coffee prices for the November 2026 delivery contract rose by 1.75% (equivalent to an increase of approximately USD 57/tonne), reaching USD 3,317/tonne. This marks a positive reversal after prices were continuously pushed to a three-month bottom due to selling pressure and harvest progress.
New York Arabica market (ICE Futures US)
Following the same recovery trend, New York Arabica coffee prices for the December 2026 delivery contract increased by 1.32%, closing at 275.90 US cents/lb. Strong technical buying at lower price levels supported the market, helping it escape the negative performance of previous trading weeks.
Brazil Arabica market (B3)
On the Brazilian exchange, the December 2026 Arabica contract (code ICFZ2026) recorded a 1.55% increase, reaching USD 333.55 per 60kg bag. This recovery aligns with the general trend on the New York exchange.
Domestic coffee market
In Vietnam's domestic market, raw coffee prices in key provinces of the Central Highlands region remained stable and flat following previous downward adjustments. Actual market trading was relatively sluggish as old-crop stocks held by farmers and dealers were depleted, while exporters shifted to a waiting stance ahead of the imminent new harvest.
Detailed purchase prices by locality are recorded as follows:
- Dak Nong: Maintained the highest price in the region at VND 92,000/kg.
- Dak Lak: Stable at VND 91,800/kg.
- Gia Lai: Recorded a price equivalent to Dak Lak at VND 91,800/kg.
- Lam Dong: Maintained the lowest purchase price in the region at VND 91,200/kg.
Analysis of supply, demand, and weather factors
Outlook for the new crop supply
According to reports from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global supply for the 2025/2026 crop year is projected to have a surplus of approximately 3 million bags (60kg type). This projected surplus is a major obstacle preventing long-term price breakthroughs, creating caution among long-term speculative buyers.
Weather conditions in key growing regions
- Brazil: Major meteorological agencies (such as Somar Meteorologia) recorded positive rainfall in Minas Gerais state, the country's key Arabica-growing region. Heavy rain significantly improved soil moisture, promoting flowering and supporting young fruit development for the upcoming season.
- Vietnam: The Central Highlands region also received favorable rainfall, providing significant support for the final development stage of Robusta coffee beans before the peak harvest season begins at the end of the year.