Global market trend overview
The global coffee market recorded a consensus downward correction during the trading session on 25/09/2026 across both major derivatives exchanges: London (Robusta) and New York (Arabica). Ample supply pressures from new crop forecasts, combined with improving weather conditions in key growing regions, eased previous concerns about short-term supply shortages.
Increased production forecasts from Brazil, coupled with favorable climatic conditions, became the primary obstacle preventing a price recovery, forcing the market to establish a lower price baseline to adapt to the expected supply volume.
Detailed analysis of coffee prices on international exchanges
London Robusta market (ICE Europe)
For Robusta coffee, the November 2026 futures contract on ICE Europe (London) closed at 3,290 USD/tonne on 25/09/2026, marking a 0.81% decline from the previous session. This downtrend reflects cautious sentiment among speculators as raw supply from Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, prepares to enter the main year-end harvest season.
New York Arabica market (ICE US)
On ICE US (New York), December 2026 Arabica coffee futures also faced downward pressure, albeit to a lesser extent. Specifically, the contract decreased by 0.20%, settling at 275.35 US cents/lb. The slight decline indicates that demand for high-quality Arabica remains stable, preventing a steep drop comparable to the Robusta market.
Brazil Arabica market (BMFBOVESPA)
Parallel to developments in New York, the domestic Brazilian Arabica market traded on BMFBOVESPA for the December 2026 contract also recorded a slight adjustment of 0.22%, closing at 335 USD/60 kg bag. This decline directly reflects the abundant domestic supply in this South American country as it enters the peak export period.
Domestic coffee market developments
Moving in phase with the downward trend on the London exchange, the bulk green coffee market in the Central Highlands region recorded a slight decrease of 200 – 300 VND/kg on 25/09/2026.
Actual purchase prices commonly ranged from 92,000 to 92,700 VND/kg, bringing the regional average to around 92,600 VND/kg. Despite the slight dip, this is still considered a relatively favorable price range for farmers before entering the peak harvest of the new crop year.
Macroeconomic and supply-demand factors affecting the market
Impact of Brazil's Conab forecast
The core driver behind today's price decline was the latest report from the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab). Accordingly, the agency officially raised its production forecast for Brazil's 2026 crop year to a record 67.6 million bags (60 kg type), a significant increase from the previously announced forecast of 66.7 million bags. This upward revision completely alleviated concerns about a global Arabica supply shortage.
Favorable weather outlook
In addition to positive data from regulatory agencies, actual weather conditions in key growing regions are supporting a bumper harvest:
- In Brazil: Timely rains have strongly supported the flowering and early fruit development of coffee trees, reinforcing the realism of Conab's record production forecast.
- In Vietnam: Soil moisture in key Central Highlands provinces is at an ideal level, creating favorable conditions for coffee cherries to accumulate nutrients before entering the ripening and widespread harvesting stage.