Coffee market analysis for October 26, 2026: The new week opens below the VND 90,000 mark

On Monday morning, when I opened the price board, the first thing that caught my eye was not the London exchange but domestic prices: ranging from VND 89,000 to VND 89,500 per kg, below the VND 90,000 threshold. The London exchange had not yet opened for the new session, so the futures prices listed below remain the closing levels from Friday, October 23. A new week starting with a morning like this warrants a closer look.

Three notable points from last week

First, Robusta had a very poor week. The November contract fell by USD 186 per tonne during the week, equivalent to 5.4%, to USD 3,228 per tonne. The January contract dropped by USD 163 per tonne, equivalent to 4.8%, to USD 3,242 per tonne. For the November contract, this marked the fourth consecutive session of declines.

Second, Arabica showed divergence. The December contract fell by 5.00 cents per pound in the final session of the week to 307.45 cents per pound, but still posted a weekly gain of 1.8 cents per pound, equivalent to 0.6%. The March contract dropped by 4.05 cents per pound in the session to 293.40 cents per pound, and declined by 1.1 cents per pound over the week, equivalent to 0.4%. On the same exchange and within the same week, two contracts moved in opposite directions.

Third, domestic prices lost the VND 90,000 mark. This morning, unhulled coffee prices ranged only from VND 89,000 to VND 89,500 per kg, with an average across the four regions of VND 89,375 per kg, a decrease of VND 1,325 compared to VND 90,700 per kg on October 24. The difference between the highest-priced and lowest-priced regions narrowed to just VND 500, meaning this downward trend was widespread and no longer varied by locality.

Futures prices and domestic prices

Domestic prices this morning are as follows. Dak Lak, Gia Lai and the Dak Nong area are all at VND 89,500/kg, while Lam Dong is at VND 89,000/kg. Compared with October 24, Dak Lak and Gia Lai both decreased by VND 1,300, Lam Dong decreased by VND 1,200, and Dak Nong decreased by VND 1,500. The survey still lists the Dak Nong area and Lam Dong separately, although Dak Nong now belongs to Lam Dong province following administrative merger. Actual transaction prices also depend on green bean quality, defect rate, moisture content, delivery location and payment terms, so readers should check with local dealers before making trading decisions.

Stocks tell two opposing stories

Exchange-certified stocks are an important indicator but do not represent the total global coffee availability. Exchange stocks can rise or fall due to warehouse inflows, withdrawals, changes in quality standards, and owners' decisions.

Closing stock data for Friday, October 23 showed two divergent trends. ICE-certified Arabica stocks stood at 227,978 bags, the lowest in five weeks, after dropping by 6,455 bags in the final session of the week. Previously, these stocks had risen by 4,847 bags on Wednesday to 239,748 bags, then fell by 5,315 bags on Thursday. Meanwhile, nearly 28,000 bags of Arabica were pending grading at ICE, the highest level in over a month, leading the market to expect stocks could rise again in the short term. Conversely, ICE Robusta stocks have surged over the past six weeks, reaching 6,612 lots by the weekend, the highest in 13 months, equivalent to approximately 1.1 million 60-kg bags.

This divergence explains why Arabica declined less than Robusta last week. One side was supported by low stocks, while the other was weighed down by rising stocks. Additionally, according to Barchart analysis, the main pressure in the final session came from long positions being closed following the mid-October price rally. Profit-taking after a period of price gains can also cause rapid short-term declines, and one should not attribute all volatility in a single session to stocks or supply without confirming evidence.

What is the new crop saying?

Vietnam is entering the main harvest season in the Central Highlands. As new coffee is harvested, processed, and brought to market, short-term supply expectations may put pressure on prices. However, the start of harvesting does not mean the entire volume will immediately appear on the market. Harvesting speed, weather, drying capacity, farmers' capital needs, and selling decisions all affect the actual volume of coffee offered for sale. The first batch of the season requires the most careful attention, as improper drying can easily cause mold to develop from the inside out before bagging.

There are two notable signals from the physical market. First, for Grade 2 Robusta with 5% black and broken beans, common offer prices are about $150–200 per tonne higher than the London January futures contract, while one trader offered to buy December delivery coffee at around 88,000 VND/kg, lower than this morning's spot price. The physical market is pricing forward deliveries lower, a signal that buyers are not in a hurry. Second, the spread between December and March Arabica futures is 14.05 cents, indicating the market still pays a premium for nearby delivery, meaning immediate supply is not truly abundant despite the price drop in the final session.

If weather is favorable and new supply increases rapidly while buying interest does not improve, domestic prices may continue to face pressure. Conversely, prolonged rain slowing the harvest or affecting processing quality could delay the arrival of standard-grade supply on the market. It is essential to monitor the actual volume brought to market rather than relying solely on the harvest calendar to predict prices.

Where to look this week

In the coming sessions, I will monitor the following five factors and revisit each as new data becomes available:

• London Robusta and New York Arabica prices for the correct contract months, to determine whether the weekend decline was merely a technical correction or the start of a longer downtrend.
• Certified stocks and daily changes, particularly whether the volume pending grading translates into a renewed increase in stocks.
• Harvest progress, weather conditions, and offer volumes in the Central Highlands.
• Brazil's crop situation and the movement of the Brazilian real exchange rate, two factors still supporting Arabica.
• Actual green coffee purchase prices in each locality, along with delivery terms and quality.

When these signals are considered together, market participants can better distinguish between a short-term correction and a genuine shift in the supply-demand balance.

A few notes

For farming households, selling decisions should be based on production costs, capital needs, lot quality, and storage capacity. Holding inventory in anticipation of higher prices also incurs costs and risks, especially if drying or storage conditions are not guaranteed. A prudent approach at this time is to sell a portion to rotate capital, retain high-quality lots, and continue monitoring.

For dealers, it is necessary to account for actual purchase prices, transportation costs, shrinkage, financing, and payment terms. International futures prices are only part of the formula for determining domestic green coffee prices; the rest depends on physical goods and individual purchasing points.

This article provides market analysis and is not a recommendation to buy or sell, nor a guarantee of price trends.

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