Global coffee price movements: Momentum from weather concerns
The global coffee market recorded widespread gains across futures exchanges at the start of the new week. The primary growth driver was short covering by investment funds, triggered by deep concerns over prolonged drought in Brazil's key growing regions.
London Robusta Exchange (ICE Futures Europe)
Robusta prices for November 2026 delivery on the London exchange closed at USD 3,412 per tonne, up 1.34% (a slight increase compared to the previous session). Although under pressure from reports of abundant long-term global supply, the short-term Robusta market was supported by concerns over immediate supply from major exporting countries and cautious sentiment among speculators ahead of Vietnam's peak harvest.
New York Arabica Exchange (ICE Futures US)
New York Arabica futures for December 2026 rebounded strongly to 288.4 US cents/lb, marking a significant increase of 3.14%. This was a direct result of severe drought in Brazil's key growing regions, particularly Minas Gerais. The lack of rain during the sensitive flowering stage directly threatens the yield potential of the 2026/27 crop year, forcing speculators to quickly close out previous short positions.
Brazil Arabica Exchange (B3)
In line with the New York exchange, Arabica coffee traded on the Brazilian exchange (December 2026 futures) rose 3.32%, closing at USD 352.2 per 60-kg bag. This movement clearly reflects domestic climate risks directly affecting the sentiment of producers and exporters in this South American country.
Domestic coffee market: Sideways movement ahead of the new harvest
In contrast to the strong breakout on the international market, domestic coffee prices in the Central Highlands chose a quiet sideways trend. Purchase prices for green robusta beans remained stable in the range of VND 93,000 to VND 93,800 per kg, with the regional average price reaching VND 93,700 per kg.
- Dak Nong: Continued to record the highest purchase price in the region, stable at VND 93,800 per kg.
- Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Maintained the previous session's trading price at VND 93,600 per kg.
- Lam Dong: Maintained the lowest price in the region at VND 93,000 per kg.
This lull is explained by the domestic market standing at the threshold of the new harvest season. Both farmers and purchasing agents are exercising caution, prioritizing observation of capital flow adjustments from international derivatives exchanges and assessing early-crop bean quality rather than pushing spot transactions.
Macroeconomic factors and market drivers
Although the trading session on 29/09/2026 witnessed an impressive recovery, analysts warn that the medium- and long-term trends of the coffee market still face many downward adjustment pressures.
Previous forecast reports from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab) both noted prospects for abundant global supply, thanks to estimated record production in Brazil if weather improves in the coming months. Additionally, the impending supply of Vietnam's new crop to the market is also a barrier preventing a sustained rise in Robusta prices.