Overview of the global coffee market: The green returns
After days of heavy selling pressure that pushed global coffee prices to their lowest levels in three months, the trading session on 26/09/2026 witnessed a strong technical recovery across all major derivatives exchanges.
London Robusta market (ICE Futures Europe)
For the November 2026 delivery contract, London Robusta coffee prices recorded an impressive increase of 2.34% (equivalent to a rise of 77 USD/ton), closing the session at 3,367 USD/ton. The sharp reversal in Robusta prices was mainly driven by speculative capital triggering the liquidation of previous short-term short positions.
New York Arabica market (ICE Futures US)
Following the recovery trend, New York Arabica coffee prices for the December 2026 delivery contract rose by 1.18% (equivalent to an increase of 3.25 US cents/lb), bringing the final session trading price to 278.60 US cents/lb.
Brazil Arabica market (B3)
On the Brazilian exchange, Arabica coffee prices for December 2026 delivery reached 338.6 USD per 60-kg bag, a slight increase of 0.91% compared to the previous trading session, in line with the global upward trend.
Domestic coffee price movements: Slight downward adjustment
In stark contrast to the strong gains on international exchanges, domestic green bean prices in the Central Highlands region on 26/09/2026 saw a slight decrease of 200 - 300 VND/kg. This reflects the cautious sentiment of domestic buyers as Vietnam is only a few weeks away from entering the new 2026 - 2027 harvest season.
In Đắk Nông province, coffee purchase prices hit a high of 92,700 VND/kg, down 300 VND/kg from the previous day. The two provinces of Đắk Lắk and Gia Lai had equivalent purchase prices of 92,500 VND/kg (both down 300 VND/kg). Meanwhile, Lâm Đồng province recorded the lowest purchase price in the region at 92,000 VND/kg after a slight decrease of 200 VND/kg.
Analysis of macroeconomic and supply-demand factors
Weaker USD and short-covering activity
The most direct and important cause driving the strong recovery of global coffee prices during the trading session on 26/09/2026 was the decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY). As the USD weakens, commodities priced in this currency, such as coffee, become more attractive to investors holding other currencies.
Additionally, after a period of aggressive short-selling that drove prices close to their three-month lows, major global hedge funds began engaging in short-covering. This technical activity generated strong short-term buying demand, causing prices on both exchanges to surge.
Long-term supply pressure persists
Despite the strong technical recovery, the long-term upward trend of coffee prices still faces significant barriers due to supply and demand forecasts from major international organizations such as the International Coffee Organization (ICO) and Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB). Recent reports continue to favor a favorable supply outlook from Brazil thanks to better weather conditions in key growing regions, which could lead to a global supply surplus in the near future.
Short-term market trend forecast
Currently, domestic coffee prices are struggling fiercely around the strong support level of 92,000 - 93,000 VND/kg. The fact that domestic prices moved slightly lower while international exchanges rose sharply indicates that dealers and exporters are limiting high-price purchases to mitigate the risk of price drops when new crop supplies begin flooding the market from late October.
In the short term, the market may continue to witness technical volatility with wide fluctuations as investment funds restructure their speculative portfolios before entering Q4 2026.
Farmers and exporting businesses need to closely monitor exchange rates and weather developments in the Central Highlands provinces to make appropriate trading decisions.