Coffee market analysis for October 25, 2026: Prices retreat after a tense week as the new crop approaches
Today is Sunday. With both the London and New York exchanges closed, I am summarizing the past week using two key data points: the Friday, October 23 closing prices on both exchanges and the survey prices from the Central Highlands on October 24. This week’s story was not about a single down session, but rather the steady daily decline in prices while the new harvest draws near.
Robusta and four consecutive sessions of declines
On the London exchange, the November 2026 Robusta futures contract closed the weekend session at USD 3,228/tonne, down USD 60/tonne, or 1.82%. For this contract month, this marks the fourth consecutive session of declines. The January 2027 contract closed at USD 3,242/tonne, down USD 59/tonne, or 1.79%. The March 2027 contract closed at USD 3,229/tonne, down USD 45/tonne, or 1.37%.
I prefer looking at a three-session sequence rather than a single session, because the sequence reveals whether selling pressure is sustained. And this sequence is indeed sustained, with no intervening recovery sessions. The November contract fell from 3,352 to 3,288 and then to 3,228, for a total drop of USD 124, or 3.70%. The January contract fell from 3,364 to 3,301 and then to 3,242, for a total drop of USD 122.
| London Robusta Contracts | Closing Price 23/10 (USD/tonne) | Session Change |
| November 2026 | 3.228 | Down USD 60, or 1.82% |
| January 2027 | 3.242 | Down USD 59, or 1.79% |
| March 2027 | 3.229 | Down USD 45, or 1.37% |
Arabica: Down in the final session but support has not completely vanished
On the New York exchange, the December 2026 Arabica futures contract closed the weekend session at 307.45 US cents/pound, down 5.00 cents, or 1.60%. The March 2027 contract closed at 293.40 US cents/pound, down 4.05 cents, or 1.36%. The May 2027 contract closed at 289.00 US cents/pound, down 3.45 cents, or 1.18%. Looking at the two most recent sessions, the December contract fell from 316.15 to 312.45 and then to 307.45, for a total drop of 8.70 cents, or 2.75%.
The difference for Arabica lies in inventory. Certified Arabica stocks at ICE stand at 227,978 bags, the lowest level in five weeks, and only slightly above the 27-year low of 217,646 bags recorded on September 15. Such low inventory levels have historically provided price support. However, nearly 28,000 bags of Arabica are currently awaiting grading at ICE, the highest level in over a month, leading the market to expect that inventories may rise again in the short term. Supportive and bearish forces were in contention, and in the final session, bearish pressure prevailed.
| New York Arabica Contracts | Closing Price 23/10 (US cents/pound) | Session Change |
| December 2026 | 307,45 | Down 5.00 cents, or 1.60% |
| March 2027 | 293,40 | Down 4.05 cents, equivalent to 1.36% |
| May 2027 | 289,00 | Down 3.45 cents, equivalent to 1.18% |
Domestic prices: all four regions declined
Green coffee bulk prices in the Central Highlands on October 24 fell across all four surveyed regions. Dak Lak and Gia Lai both dropped by VND 600, to VND 90,800/kg. Lam Dong decreased by VND 600, to VND 90,200/kg, the lowest among the surveyed group. Dak Nong fell by VND 500, to VND 91,000/kg, remaining the region with the highest price. The average across the four regions stood at VND 90,700/kg, a decrease of VND 575 compared to October 23.
The three-day trend shows a steady decline in domestic prices: the average across the four regions fell from VND 91,700/kg on October 22 to VND 91,275/kg on October 23, and then to VND 90,700/kg on October 24, for a total drop of VND 1,000/kg. In Dak Nong, the region with the highest prices, the decline amounted to VND 3,000/kg from the VND 94,000/kg recorded on October 21. The VND 90,000/kg level is becoming a notable benchmark for the domestic market in the final sessions of October, as prices approach this threshold from above.
| Region | Price on October 23 (VND/kg) | Price on October 24 (VND/kg) | Change |
| Dak Lak | 91.400 | 90.800 | Down VND 600 |
| Lam Dong | 90.800 | 90.200 | Down VND 600 |
| Gia Lai | 91.400 | 90.800 | Down VND 600 |
| Dak Nong | 91.500 | 91.000 | Down VND 500 |
| Average of four regions | 91.275 | 90.700 | Down VND 575 |
Why both exchanges ended in the red
Profit-taking after the mid-October rally. According to Barchart’s analysis, the main pressure stemmed from some long positions being closed out following the price surge in mid-October. After prices rose sharply in a short period, profit-taking sell-off was sufficient to pull both exchanges down, even in the absence of any breakthrough supply and demand news.
Inventory tells two contrasting stories. Certified Arabica stocks at ICE fell further in the Friday session, reaching a five-week low of 227,978 bags. Previously, these stocks had increased by 4,847 bags on Wednesday to 239,748 bags, then decreased by 5,315 bags on Thursday, and fell by another 6,455 bags on Friday. Conversely, Robusta stocks at ICE have risen sharply over the past six weeks, reaching 6,612 lots by the end of the week, the highest level in 13 months, exerting direct pressure on Robusta prices.
The new crop is arriving. Supply from Brazil's new harvest is gradually entering the market, while Vietnam has also begun its 2026/2027 coffee crop harvest. The domestic harvest is entering a more active phase, with actual volumes supplied to the market increasing gradually, coinciding with international price adjustments, leading to more cautious trading sentiment. This is also when post-harvest cherry sorting becomes crucial for raw material quality, as the initial batches of the harvest are most prone to spoilage if processing is delayed.
The strengthening Brazilian real is the remaining support for Arabica. The Brazilian real continues to strengthen, and this factor is still supporting Arabica prices. Thanks to this support, Arabica's decline in recent sessions was milder than Robusta's, although both faced profit-taking pressure.
Next week, we will look at four factors
First, Monday's trading session on October 26 will indicate whether last week's decline was merely a technical correction or the start of a longer downtrend. Second, whether certified stocks at ICE have increased again as expected from bags awaiting grading. Third, whether the Brazilian real maintains its upward momentum. Fourth, whether harvest progress in Brazil and the Central Highlands pushes more supply onto the market, and whether domestic prices can hold the VND 90,000/kg level.
For farmers currently in their harvest season, the current downward trend is not a basis for panic selling of the entire output, nor is it a signal to hold stock waiting for higher prices without a plan. A prudent approach is to sell a portion to rotate capital, retain high-quality lots, and monitor reference prices and harvest progress before making further decisions. Actual purchase prices at individual dealers may vary depending on coffee quality, moisture content, impurity ratio, delivery method, and payment terms.
The short-term trend remains bearish, but the milder decline in Arabica compared to Robusta indicates that the market has not entered a state of widespread panic selling. A single up or down session early next week is insufficient to confirm a long-term trend. Coffee growers, dealers, and export businesses should combine reference prices with commodity quality, delivery demand, and actual costs before making trading decisions.
This article provides market analysis and does not constitute trading advice or guarantee price trends.
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